Wednesday, July 10, 2013

China New Model for Growth Creates Tension

Greetings from the Australian National University in Canberra, where Chen Yuming, Chinese Ambassador to Australia is launching the book "China: A New Model for Growth and Development". The Ambassador said that China will not repeat the mistake of other countries as they developed, with hegemony, but with a peaceful, responsible and open country. However, there are tensions.

For the last few weeks I have been attending seminars at and near the ANU on strategic, legal and security issues. Many of these have addressed China.

On 9 July Dr Robert O'Neill, Planning Director for the US Studies Centre (University of Sydney) talked on
"Defence 2013 - preparing to face our next enemy" and explicitly referenced China.

On 28 June Admiral Dennis C. Blair (USN Retired) is talked on "What should we do about China?". 

On 20 June Dr Christopher Ward talked on "South China Sea: The disputes and prospects for international law". He pointed out problems with the vagueness of China's claim to most of the South China Sea.
On 22 August a panel of experts discussed possible military conflict, as a result of the USA's ‘pivot’ to Asia. The event announcement, somewhat provocatively, had a photo of a US Carrier strike group, the symbol of American power in the Pacific, on the announcement. Coincidently in 1997, I visited the USS Blue Ridge, flagship of the 7th Fleet, when on exercise with Australian Defence Force.

On 2 July at the CSIRO Discovery Centre (opposite ANU), Asher Jamieson from the Australian Government's CERT Australia talked on current and emerging threats in the Cyber Security landscape, including the Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) from China. The followed previous talk 13 March on the Cyber Range for Teaching Cyber-Warfare at the Australian Defence Force Academy.
China: A New Model for Growth and Development 
Table of Contents
  1. China’s New Strategy for Long-term Growth and Development - Ross Garnaut, Cai Fang and Ligang Song
  2. New Institutions for a New Development Model - Dwight H. Perkins
  3. The New Normal of Chinese Development - Yiping Huang, Cai Fang, Peng Xu and Gou Qin
  4. The End of China’s Demographic Dividend - Cai Fang and Lu Yang
  5. Chinese Industrialisation - Huw McKay and Ligang Song
  6. China’s Saving and Global Economic Performance - Rod Tyers, Ying Zhang and Tsun Se Cheong
  7. Growing into an Innovative Economy - Yixiao Zhou
  8. China’s Agricultural Development - Li Zhou
  9. Rural–Urban Migration - Xin Meng
  10. Reforming China’s Public Finances for Long-term Growth - Christine Wong
  11. Changing Business Environment in China - Xiaolu Wang, Jingwen Yu and Fan Gang
  12. Will Chinese Industry Ever Be ‘Green’? - Shiyi Chen and Jane Golley
  13. Can China Achieve Green Growth? - Yongsheng Zhang
  14. China’s Climate Change Mitigation in International Context - Ross Garnaut
  15. China’s Energy Demand Growth and the Energy Policy Trilemma - Simon Wensley, Stephen Wilson and Jane Kuang
  16. Financial Constraints on Chinese Outward Direct Investment by the Private Sector - Bijun Wang, Miaojie Yu and Yiping Huang
  17. Determinants of Chinese Exports in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Products - Kunwang Li and Bingzhan Shi
The Chinese economy is undergoing profound change in policy and structure. The change is necessary to increase the value of growth to the Chinese community, and to sustain growth into the future. The changes are so comprehensive and profound that they represent a new model of Chinese economic growth. This book describes the replacement of an old uninhibited investment expansion model of growth, by transition to modern economic growth and provides insights into recent changes and where they are likely to lead. These include requirements for building the new institutions including its public finances for future growth, adjustments in its savings, industry and agriculture, changes in its demographic structure, business environment, and pattern of rural-urban migration, prospects for ‘green growth’, its energy policy dilemma and the climate change mitigation strategy, and changes for China’s interaction with the international economy through its overseas investment and trade in high tech products. China’s adoption of a new model of economic growth is of immense importance to people in China and everywhere. This book is an early attempt to take a close look at many of the features of the new model.

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