High Speed Rail For South-East Australia

Mr. Anthony Albanese , the Minister for Infrastructure and Transport, released the High speed rail study phase 2 report, 11 April 2013. This looked at the feasibility of Melbourne, Canberra, Sydney, Newcastle and Brisbane being linked by high speed passenger trains. The report finds this technically feasible, with economic and environmental benefits, but media reports have concentrated on the high cost and long time scale of such a project. In my view the project would be politically and financially feasible if built in stages. The Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne sector could be politically justified by eliminating the need for a second Sydney airport and the treat of further aircraft noise over politically sensitive western Sydney electorates. The project could be funded from the sale of land in new "i-Towns" along the route.

Providing a high speed passenger train from Sydney to Canberra and Melbourne would eliminate most flights on one of the world's busiest aircraft corridors. This would free up slots at Sydney airport for other interstate and international flights. It would also allow Canberra to be the second Sydney airport.

Fast train access to regional Australia would allow the rapid development of new "i-Towns". This would relieve development pressure from Sydney and the sale of the developed land in the new towns would pay for the cost of the railway. The new towns would exploit broadband technology to the maximum, to make them attractive and also low cost to develop. Facilities such as an advanced hospital, university campus, offices and entertainment facilities would be integrated and on-line. The railway would provide rapid access to the city for services not available in town. The towns could be built at the same time as the railway, so that revinue from land sales would be avialabl;e quickly.

CoMConnect: Exploring Melbourne's Digital Future

The city of Melbourne is hosting "CoMConnect: Exploring Melbourne's Digital Future", 11 August 2012. This is a free "un-conference" on how how digital technology can improve Melbourne.

This may be of interest to teachers, as education is a big part of the Digital City. Also other cities have Digital City programs, including the Wellington Digital Strategy and Action Plan, Digital Manchester and Canberra My Digital City innovation prize.

I booked to attend the event, when I was in Melbourne for ICCSE2012, but the event was delayed due to the Melbourne state by-election. So I will not now be able to attend, but here are some suggestions I have for a digital Melbourne:

1. Fix MiKi Ticketing system: On my recent visit to Melbourne I tried Miki smart ticketing system. This was much more difficult and unreliable than systems in places such as Istanbul and Canberra. I suggest Melbourne and the Victorian government obtain federal government support and funding for making all the state smart ticket systems inter-operable, so that someone with a MiKi could use it in other states (and at the same time they could fix the problems with the MiKi).
   
2. Lego Education Melbourne for Robotics and Renewable Energy : Melbourne has a wonderful resource in the Lego Education Centers. These run courses in robotics and renewable energy using Lego education kits, for school students and teachers. I suggest that similar courses would benefit business and government.
3. Un-conference venues: Modern "un"-conferences require venues with different facilities to last century events. What is needed is a flexible layout which can be reconfigured by the participants, with walls you can write on, display screens and wireless networking. The preeminent example of this in Australia is the University of Canberra's Inspire Center., which as used for the 2012 GovCamp/GovHack. I suggest Melbourne catalog existing such venues and encourage the development of new ones.
4. Teach On-line Communication: A digital city is partly on-line. This requires the citizens, business and cultural community to have good on-line communication skills. As an example, an on-line event, such as CoMConnect requires its own on-line presence (2012 GovCamp/GovHack provides a good example). Melbourne has numerous public and private educational institutions which can teach how to do this. I suggest Melbourne City Council host free introductory courses at its public libraries, for the citizens.
   

Here is the official CoMConnect event announcement:

The City of Melbourne is exploring how digital technology can help keep Melbourne one of the greatest places to be - at work, at play and at home in the 21st Century.

CoM Connect will bring together community leaders, thinkers, designers, technologists, researchers, urbanists and makers over the weekend of the 11th and 12th August to explore Melbourne's digital future.

This is your invitation to join us!

We expect demand for this exciting event to be very high so act quickly to secure your spot.

Important things to know...

• Our hashtag for the event: #comconnect
• We ask that you do your best to commit to participating over both days. We understand this is a big ask and for our part we promise to make sure you are well fed, mentally stimulated and entertained by a diverse mix of fascinating people and conversations.
  
• Due to the anticipated high demand we've had to limit the number of tickets to 1 per person. If you had previously registered to 'save the date' on behalf of friends or colleagues please forward them the invitation so they may register themselves.
  
• In order to make sure we have a healthy mix of backgrounds and perspectives participating over the weekend a small number of invitations have already been issued. The remaining places will be allocated on a first come/first served basis.
• In the event that all tickets are snapped up a waitlist will be used for the overflow. This means if you find yourself unable to make it please let the organisers know so someone else can take your place.

More about the event...

The Aims of CoM Connect...

• Build Community – Start to build a network of people and companies interested in working alongside the City of Melbourne to explore ways we can deliver better experiences and services to those who live, work and play within the municipality.
• Build Knowledge - Create an environment where leading Urban and Digital thinkers, researchers and practitioners can share share their knowledge about emerging trends and what they might mean for the City and its residents and visitors.
• Inspire – Showcase examples of cutting edge ideas, projects and research already taking place across Melbourne.
  

The Format...

• CoM Connect will be run as an unconference or open space event where the topics of discussion and the agenda are set by the participants.
• Each day will start with a blank timetable that we'll populate with the talks and discussions the participants (yes, that means you!) want to lead and initiate.
  
• Our venue at The Hub provides us with a multitude of adaptable spaces that can just as easily accommodate a plenary session for 200 as a conversation between a few people.
• Once the timetable is populated it's up to you to decide which sessions you would like to attend and which talks and discussions you'd like to participate in.
• For each session or discussion we ask that notes are kept and shared so all our creative and intellectual output is captured.

The Outcomes...

• In the days following the event the City of Melbourne (along with everyone who participated) will be presented with a summary that outlines the main themes, opportunities and areas for further investigation. This will help guide the City of Melbourne's future research and engagement activities as we work towards developing a Digital City Strategy.

Brecht in Melbourne

John Muirhead and Chuck Mallett perfomed "Brecht: Bilbao and Beyond" as part of the Melbourne Cabaret Festival in July 2012, at Chapel Off Chapel. One modern note for this telling of the life of Bertolt Brecht, through poem and song, was the use of Apple iPads in place of sheet music. I think Brecht would have approved the iPad's minimalist case. It was a little distracting to see Chuck Mallett have to swipe the screen fo the next page of music (I expect there is an auto page turner app for the iPad).

Muirhead and Mallett's Devised banter was entertaining, but I would have welcomed a break from just the one singing voice and one piano.

See also: Double act stops to draw Brecht, Raymond Gill, The Age, 3 December 2011

Charcoal Lane Restaurant Melbourne

With a few hours to spare before catching the train back to Sydney, I made an impulse decision to try the Charcoal Lane Restaurant Melbourne. This is in an old stone building at 136 Gertrude Street, Fitzroy (confusingly not in Charcoal Lane). This very up-market establishment is run by Mission Australia to give Aboriginal and disadvantaged young people work experience. The food and service were excellent, as was the venue. They were setting up for a multimedia street festival, with images projected onto the windows of the building, adding excitement to the evening.

Cool Night on a Slow Moving Train

Greetings from the overnight train from Melbourne to Sydney. This is a NSW CountryLink XPT , which left Melbourne's Southern Cross Railway Station on time at 7:55pm and is due at Sydney Central Station at 8:20pm. We are one hour late due to track-works, but that is hardly noticeable in the first class sleeper compartment, with breakfast served on time.

The compartment has three seats during the day and converts to two single bunk beds. There is a shower/toilet shared by each two compartments. Showering on a moving train is a challenging experience, but it is refreshing.

The compartment has a power-point, handy for laptops and mobile charging (although mobile data and cell coverage becomes intermittent outside the city, due in part to the metallic anti-reflective coting on the windows blocking radio signals).

Outside the city there is not much variation in the countryside: trees, fields and the odd cow and horse. This does not quite compare with the Rock Mountains, the Swiss Alps, or Thessaloniki to Istanbul. But particularly for rail enthusiasts, this is one to tick off on the list. You should book soon, as the NSW Government has announced a restructure of railways and the service is likely to be canceled (see: "RailCorp split divides opinion", Ben Neutze, The Current, 16 May 2012).

ps:Warm Nights on a Slow Moving Train was a 1988 film by Bob Ellis with Wendy Hughes and Colin Friels, set on a NSW overnight train. This trip did not have quite that excitement.

Obtaining a Melbourne Tram Ticket

Next month I am speaking at an international conference in Melbourne. Most of the other delegates are from China and will be staying at the conference venue. I am staying in the city and so need to get to the venue. The Melbourne tram network is extensive and they has introduced a smart transit card ("Myki"). But working out how to actually buy a ticket has proven much more difficult than getting the equivalent electronic ticket in Istanbul.

There are plans for a Tourist Pack, for visitors, preloaded with $8. But currently if you click "visitor" on the "Which MyKi is for you?" page, you are advised to buy the regular MiKi card. Curiously, while full fee paying passengers are told that the card will cost $6, visitors are not told of this cost.

I attempted to purchase a MiKi card, with MiKi money already loaded on the card. Also I chose a registered card, which allows topping up the money online and a refund if the card is lost. This required filling in not only details of where I wanted the card sent, but my email and phone details, a user id, and password. The first few times I tried this the system rejected the transaction after I had completed several screens full of information. The text on one screen was overlapping and unreadable and in other cases the text I was trying to enter would not fit in the boxes, due to poor web page design.

After several attempts I was able to order a registered card. I then tried to order a non-registered card for someone travelling with me. In this case I could not work out how to order a card with money on it. I could order a card with no money on it, but that would be of no use, as there would be no way to use it for travel. Perhaps this as done for security reasons, as the anonymous card acts as essentially like cash. But it seems silly not to allow at least a small amount of money on the card, as without it the card is useless.

Several Australian cities have, or are introducing, smart transit cards. All these cards use the same technical standards and are capable of being interoperable. The Australian Government could boost tourism and lower carbon emissions by encouraging the state governments to allow their transit systems to accept each other's smart cards (just as toll roads accept interstate electronic tags). This would allow interstate visitors to use their current card and international visitors to pre-purchase a card.

High Speed Passenger/Freight Trains for Canberra-Sydney-Melbourne

Canberra Airport is planning a high speed rail terminal to quickly transfer passenger to Sydney (Airport willing to fund rail terminal, ABC News, June 12, 2012). The incorporation of freight could make a Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne high speed train service more viable, with freight moved from aircraft to train at the same time the passengers are boarding.

In March Euro Carex ran a high speed test freight train from Lyon to London. The train is actually a modified TGV passenger train used by the French post office for carrying mail. The consortium plans to run dedicated high speed freight trains between European airports to transport freight at lower cost than possible by air. Dedicated freight terminals will be built inside the security perimeter of the airports, allowing container to be moved securely between planes and trains.

Australia would not have enough freight to justify dedicated trains. Instead I suggest dual mode trains be used with passengers and freight. The freight area would be separated from the passenger compartment for security. On high capacity routes a modified double deck train could be used, with the freight on the deck above the passengers. A separate secure upper platform would be used to load freight at the same time passengers are embarking below. The same roll-on and roll off systems as used for aircraft could be used to load the trains and both road transport pallets and air containers could be used.

Digital City Unconference

The City of Melbourne is holding a Digital City Unconference 14 to 15 July 2012 in Melbourne. The city is developing a Digital City Strategy to help be global digital city. As I will be in Melbourne to speak at the 7th International Conference on Computer Science and Education (ICCSE 2012), I have registered to go along to the unconference. For some of my items see: digital city.

Broadband and Train to Replace Second Sydney Airport

The NSW Premier, Barry O'Farrell, has proposed to use a high-speed rail line from Sydney to Canberra in place of a second Sydney airport. Canberra's airport could then be used for Sydney. This is technically feasible, but it might be necessary to extend the rail line to Melbourne to make it viable. Also I suggest the use of broadband to make new settlements along the route viable and to pay the cost of the rail line.

European experience suggested that a rail service between Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne would replace most air travel. Broadband access on the train would also make this form of travel more attractive and something much harder for an aircraft to provide. This would free up the existing Sydney airport for longer trips. Also some international passengers who currently land in Sydney and transfer to Canberra or Melbourne by air, would then instead land in Canberra or Melbourne.

Sydney to Melbourne is the second busiest passenger air route in the world, with 950 aircraft movements per week. A high-speed train could be expected to replace 90% of flights between Canberra and Sydney and 80% between Sydney and Melbourne. Assuming that also 20% of the international flights to Sydney were replaced with ones to Canberra and Melbourne, this would free up significant capacity in Sydney. The use of larger A380 aircraft will also increase Sydney's capacity.

The high-speed train could make new and expanded settlements in inland NSW viable, reducing infrastructure pressure on Sydney. The sale of improved land in the new settlements would be sufficient to pay for the rail line. Broadband Internet could be used to provide jobs and services quickly and at low-cost in the new settlements, making them more attractive to residents. As an example, shared offices could be provided for workers to telecommute from. New schools, TAFEs and university campuses could be built with computer equipped classrooms, allowing access to global education. Medical facilities with instant on-line access to remote specialists could be provided.

Danish Environmental Industry Delegation to Australia

The Danish Government has announced the Bright Green Denmark trade visit to Australia 21 to 24 November 2011. Included will be people from businesses in Smart Cities and Renewable Energy. Australia-born Crown Princess Mary will accompany the delegation.

Approx 40 Danish companies within the sectors of Smart Cities, Renewable Energy, and Food & Food Technology are participating in the delegation, which will visit Sydney and Melbourne from 21-24 November 2011. The business delegation will also include a cultural component. The purpose of the delegation is to promote both Denmark and Danish businesses in Australia as well as cooperation and partnership between Australian and Danish businesses.

The objective behind this business delegation is to create a unique opportunity and environment where knowledge sharing, sustainable thinking and reflections and future business cooperation are discussed. Furthermore, it is intended to convert successful Danish achievements into an Australian context based on local demand. The concept is based on a series of business and cultural events with the purpose of promoting Denmark and Danish businesses as well as cooperation and partnership with Australian businesses. The 4-day program will include sector specific seminars (in both Sydney and Melbourne), individual business-to-business (B2B) meetings, site visits and official business lunches and dinners.

The Danish business delegation is organised by the Royal Danish Embas¬sy in Canberra and the Trade Council of Denmark in Sydney in cooperation with key industry associations in Denmark.

Australian High Speed Rail Needs the NBN

The Minister for Infrastructure and Transport, Anthony Albanese, released the report "High Speed Rail Study - Phase One" on 4 August 2011. This looks at the economic viability of routes for high speed rail on the east coast of Australia, from Brisbane to Melbourne, via Sydney and Canberra at an estimated cost of $61B to $108B. The first report looks at corridors, station locations, cost, number of passengers, social and regional benefits. The report is open for comment until the end of September.

Scope for New Optimal Cities on Rail Route

The ADC Cities Report, was launched by Minister Albanese in October 2010. This suggested 250,000 to 300,000 people being the optimal size for units of a livable city. Any new high speed rail plan for Australia should include expanding existing towns, or building new cities along the route. The enhanced access of high speed rail line (and broadband discussed below) would allow these settlements to be viable sooner, at a smaller size and at lower financial and environmental cost.

Canberra could be one such city, with one transport interchange for the high speed rail servicing the city. A light rail network would connect the railway station to Canberra's five town centres. Each of the town centers would be increased in population to 300,000, expanding Canberra's population by about five times to 1.5 million, without increasing its area.

Broadband synergy with high speed rail

One major failing of the report is that it does not take into account the effect the Internet will have on transport and settlement patterns. The Australian Government is investing in the NBN, a national fiber optic and fixed wireless network. This will allow more flexibility for the location of jobs and the provision of services. High speed rail could be planned to complement the NBN, allowing new cities to be built in inland Australia. The combination of the NBN and high speed rail would provide access to jobs and services for cities which would otherwise not be economically, or socially, feasible.

Wireless Internet can also be used to increase the allowable travel time for high speed rail. Passengers who have access to high speed broadband will be willing to have extended travel times as they will be able to be entertained, or work, on route. This can lower the cost of the system, by reducing the required speed of the trains, reducing the cost of infrastructure by tens of billions of dollars. The reduction of rail development cost would be sufficient to pay for the entire NBN.

The Internet and high speed rail could also be used to make the delivery of goods more environmentally efficient. While high speed rail is normally considered for passenger transport, it is also used for the transport of high value goods. As an example, the French national railways run a fleet of purpose build mail trains SNCF TGV La Poste. In the Australian case it is more likely that mail and packages would be carried on the rail passenger services, much as mail is transported on passenger aircraft. Palletized freight could be transferred quickly from train to cargo trams, to eliminate the need for trucks.hospitals.

A change is now taking place in the way retail purchasing occurs, with good now ordered on-line and delivered. The change from air to rail for packages would reduce the environmental impact and lower the cost, allowing Australian cites along the routes to be serviced more easily.

The combination of the Internet and high speed rail could replace much of the expensive infrastructure normally needed for building a city, with attractive new settlements built quickly along the rail corridor.

High Speed Rail Development

In the decades since the Australian Government started considering high speed rail, networks have been built in Europe and Asia. The technology has matured to the point where Australia could purchase high speed speed trains from about a dozen European and Asian suppliers.

As the new government report points out, Australia can choose from trains designed to operate on upgraded existing track at lower speeds and dedicated very high speed tracks. The UK and USA have attempted to speed up old track with new trains with poor results. Better results have been achieved by Italy and Germany. The use of magnetic levitation has also not proved cost effective.

The difficulty is the planning decisions needed to make the large investment in track viable. High speed rail makes sense only if there are going to be new cities built along the route and the resulting increase in land value can be used to pay for the railway.

In 1995 I rode a Swedish X2000 high speed Tilt Train being tested from Sydney to Canberra. While the train was very comfortable, the track did not allow high speed. In 2004 I traveled from London to Brussels, Berlin and Hamburg by the Eurostar, Thalys and ICE high speed trains. This technology is now an everyday reality in much of the developed world and is being introduced into some developing nations.

The report

The report was prepared by AECOM Australia Pty Ltd, in association with GRIMSHAW Architects, KPMG and SKMA. Oddly for a government report, it is copyright AECOM Australia Pty Ltd. This is not in accordance with the Australian Government's policy of making documents open access to allow free dissemination. It is suggested the second report be issued with a Creative Commons license. The use of PDF for the report also creates accessibility problems for people with a disability.It is suggested future students be released in HTML format.

Available are:

• High Speed Rail Study - Phase One Report Executive Summary (PDF: 1207 KB)
• High Speed Rail Study - Phase One Report (PDF: 9207 KB)
• High Speed Rail Study - Phase One Report Appendices (PDF: 7783 KB)
• High Speed Rail Study - Phase One Report Full Report (PDF: 16120 KB)

Here is an excerpt from the executive summary of the report converted from PDF to text (note that some tables, graphics and formatting has been omitted):

Executive summary

A strategic study on the implementation of a High Speed Rail (HSR) network on the east coast of Australia (the study) was announced by the Minister for Infrastructure and Transport, the Hon. Anthony Albanese MP, on 5
August 2010.

The study is being conducted in two phases. Phase 1, undertaken between January and June 2011, has assessed the likely range of costs, identified potential corridors and stations, estimated the potential future market demand for HSR, and considered potential social and regional development impacts of a HSR network.

Phase 1 has not examined the financial feasibility of HSR on the east coast of Australia and therefore does not include a benefit versus cost analysis. Phase 2 will examine the financial feasibility of HSR, identify an optimum route alignment, refine patronage and cost estimates and investigate potential financing options.
This report provides the outcomes of phase 1.

Cost estimates and risk

The risk-adjusted cost estimate for the implementation of an overall HSR network would fall within the range of $61 billion to $108 billion (in $2011) depending upon the combination of corridors selected, reflecting the level of confidence for this phase of the study.

The risk-adjusted cost estimates include land acquisition, stations and city access, maintenance and stabling facilities, power infrastructure, civil and rail infrastructure and IT and ticketing systems. They exclude client planning and procurement management costs, which are likely to be in the order of 10 to 15 per cent of the estimate. They also exclude operating costs (including a leasing cost for the rolling stock).

The land cost component for the HSR network is approximately $6 billion (in $2011). Acquiring, or otherwise preserving, the corridor in the short-term could reduce future costs by reducing the likelihood of additional tunnels as urban areas grow and preferred corridors become unavailable.

International experience suggests it is unrealistic to expect the capital cost of a HSR network to be recovered.

Corridors

Corridors short-listed for further analysis in phase 2 were:

• Coastal corridors between Brisbane and Newcastle, with potential variations around coastal cities and the Gold Coast.
• The Central Coast corridor between Newcastle and
• Sydney.
• The Hume Highway and Princes Highway corridors between Sydney and Canberra, via Southern Highlands.
• The Hume Highway corridor between Canberra and Melbourne, via Riverina, Murray, and with a potential route option via the Goulburn Valley.

These short-listed corridors lie within the green band shown in the following map. It is recommended that this green band define the study area for phase 2.

The short-listed corridors broadly:

• Follow the alignment of the existing long-distance rail network.
• Provide access to larger regional towns and cities along coastal New South Wales (NSW) and inland Victoria enhancing the accessibility of these areas.
• Have lower capital costs for infrastructure and land acquisition than other options.
• Have the highest net benefits of those options examined.
• Minimise potential impacts on national parks and other sensitive land uses.

Urban access in major metropolitan areas would be predominantly by tunnel. Within urban areas, the combined construction and land costs involved in tunnelling are comparable with those of surface alignments and would permit higher operating speeds and reduce environmental impact.

Regulatory frameworks exist to protect infrastructure corridors in each state and territory, although there are differences between approaches.

Stations

The following city centre station locations were short-listed for further analysis in phase 2:

• Roma Street Station and South Bank in Brisbane.
• Central Station, Eveleigh, Homebush and Parramatta in Sydney.
• Southern Cross Station and North Melbourne in Melbourne.
• Civic and Canberra Airport in Canberra.

Patronage demand analysis suggests that central business district (CBD) locations would be the major trip generator and attractor in each city. Stations closest to the CBD would generate the most demand for a HSR network.Peripheral stations were considered for Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, typically located towards the urban boundary where there is good access to the arterial road network. Zones in which these stations should be considered are proposed, with the final location of periphery stations subject to the optimum alignment of HSR tunnels, availability of appropriate sites and potential transport connections.

Sydney and Melbourne airports have not been short-listed because initial patronage demand forecasts indicate most HSR demand would be for travel to the CBDs, rather than to airports. Further analysis has been recommended in phase 2 to confirm assumptions made in phase 1 regarding demand for access to air services.

The following regional areas have sufficient size and demand to warrant a regional or parkway HSR station, although other regional station opportunities may exist:

• Brisbane to Newcastle: Gold Coast, Far North Coast, Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast
• Newcastle to Sydney: Central Coast
• Sydney to Canberra: Southern Highlands, Illawarra
• Canberra to Melbourne: Riverina, Murray, Goulburn Valley

HSR demand is relatively insensitive to the precise location of regional stations if appropriate access is provided between the nearest cities or towns and the HSR station.

...

Cost estimates and risk for short-listed corridors

The risk-adjusted cost estimates of the individual short-listed corridors are presented below. The risk-adjusted cost estimates are expressed in terms of P10 to P90, derived from probabilistic risk analysis. The P10, P50 and P90 estimates have a 10 per cent, 50 per cent and 90 per cent chance of not being exceeded respectively.

...

Forecast patronage demand

The population of the east coast states and territory of Australia is forecast to increase from 18 million people in 2011 to 28 million people by 2056. Over 100 million long distance trips are made on the east coast of Australia each year, and this is forecast to grow to 264 million long-distance trips over the next 45 years.

On the basis of demographic forecasts, assumed fares and operational characteristics, the patronage demand forecasts suggest that by 2036, 54 million people may use an HSR network each year. Regional demand represents a significant component of total patronage, with approximately 50 per cent of travel found to be related to areas outside Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne.

It is predicted that approximately eight million passengers could travel on a HSR network between Sydney and Melbourne in 2036, and 3.5 million passengers between Brisbane and Sydney in 2036. This equates to approximately half of the projected air market for both sectors in 2036.

These forecasts assume inter-city HSR fares comparable with inter-city air fares.

Travel on HSR between Newcastle, the Central Coast and Sydney is predicted to be approximately 15 million trips in 2036, of which approximately five million would be commuting trips. These forecasts assume HSR fares between Newcastle and Sydney would be $16.50 for commuters, $30 for non-business travellers and $60 for business travellers (one-way in 2011 dollars). Between Gosford and Sydney, HSR fares are assumed to be $14.25 for commuters, $26 for non-business travellers and $53 for business travellers (one-way in 2011 dollars).

Lower fares for commuters reflect a potential subsidy for these trips.

Forecast patronage demand was found to be sensitive to changes in HSR fare levels, but less so to changes in air fares, as regional travel demand, of which air travel is a relatively small component, would be less affected.
Patronage was also found to be sensitive to HSR travel time, with mainly inter-city travel affected, due to the close competition with air.

The study confirmed that inter-city non-stop running times could be approximately:

• Three hours between Brisbane and Sydney and Sydney and Melbourne.
• Forty minutes between Newcastle and Sydney.
• One hour between Sydney and Canberra.

Key project parameters

Key project parameters for the phase 1 study included:

• Economic analysis assumed an appraisal period of 20 years from 2036, being an indicative operational year for an HSR network.
• The network infrastructure would be a double-track standard-gauge electrified line with maximum operating speed of 200 km/h within urban areas and 350 km/h elsewhere.
• Services would initially be operated by eight car sets with the potential for train size to be increased to 12 or 16 cars as required by patronage demand, and would be a mixture of inter-city express services and regional services stopping at intermediate stations.
• Non-stop travel times between the major centres would depend on the precise alignment selected but would typically be around three hours between Brisbane and Sydney and Sydney and Melbourne and 40 minutes between Newcastle and Sydney.
• The patronage forecasts allowed for accessibility of HSR stations, as well as the relative costs, travel times and service frequencies of alternative modes.
• Non urban stations would serve major regional centres, either directly or as parkway stations. These would typically be at intervals of 70 to 100 kilometres, although closer spacing is likely if sections also carry outer suburban regional services.
• Access from the urban boundary to city centre stations in major metropolitan areas would largely be through dedicated tunnel.
• HSR fares were assumed to be similar on average to current inter-city air fares, air travel times were assumed to be similar to current times, and HSR service frequencies were assumed to be hourly or better, depending on route and service type.
• Commuter demand modelling for the Newcastle to Sydney corridor was based on fares of $16.50 and $14.25 for Newcastle to Sydney and Gosford to Sydney respectively (one-way in 2011 dollars). Lower fares for commuters reflect a potential subsidy for these trips.

Overview of study methodology

Patronage demand forecasting

A base corridor was used to predict patronage of a HSR network in 2036, based on forecast travel demand and assumptions about competing modes.

An east coast model and a Newcastle to Sydney model were developed to address the following questions:

• What are the main geographical markets in the east coast corridor that a HSR network could potentially serve?
• What is the size of these markets and how are they split between alternative transport modes (car, rail, coach and air)?
• How would these markets grow in future?
• What is the potential for diversion from existing modes to a future HSR network?
• How sensitive is the level of that diversion to HSR performance and to the future scenarios?

The east coast model was designed to estimate market size and mode share from the National Visitors Survey, which includes business and non-business trips over 50 kilometres between the main cities and the towns in the corridor, but excludes commuting trips.

Travel demand growth was projected as a function of future population growth in the corridor and income growth, based on techniques used by Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE). Models of mode choice and induced travel were developed using a combination of international and local evidence to estimate diversion to HSR services and the induced travel brought about by consequent improvements in accessibility.

The Newcastle to Sydney model had a similar form to the east coast model, but focussed on commuting travel.

Estimates of the market size and mode shares were derived from the 2006 National Population Census.
Growth in commuting demand was then projected as a function of the future population growth projections in the corridor and growth in employment in Sydney and Parramatta. A model of commuter mode choice in the corridor was developed to estimate diversion to HSR services.

The presence of a HSR service to Sydney could substantially improve the accessibility of Sydney’s employment to the workforce resident in the corridor, encouraging a larger proportion of the workforce to commute to Sydney (or Parramatta). A model of the relationship between this propensity to commute and accessibility has been developed using the evidence of current commuting propensities in the corridor (derived from the Census).

Model outputs were benchmarked against international HSR systems and previous Australian HSR studies.
Corridor appraisal Long-list corridors were identified within the study area to enable a broad comparison between, for example inland corridors and coastal corridors. These were selected on the basis of:

• Long-distance travel demand characteristics, including towns and cities linked by air routes. These centres include coastal cities in northern NSW and inland cities through southern NSW and northern Victoria.
• Existing transport corridors, as they tend to link regional cities and towns. These are broadly the New England and Pacific Highways through northern NSW, and the Hume and Princes Highways through southern NSW and Victoria.
• Corridors considered in previous HSR studies to provide a comparison using current population, patronage demand, environmental and engineering information.
• Major road and rail projects to identify potential synergies for inter-operability, congestion relief or shared use of corridors.

An initial appraisal assessed long-list corridors qualitatively against a number of criteria: potential development benefits, potential connectivity with other transport systems, land use and environment impacts, potential future population catchment, and indicative capital costs.

Poorly performing corridors were excluded from further analysis, while the best performing were taken forward to a medium-list.

A largely quantitative appraisal of the medium-list corridors was undertaken to identify a short-list. This analysis was undertaken on corridors from city centre to city centre (including city access corridors). The appraisal compared corridors against a base corridor for each segment of the study area using four criteria: land use and environmental impacts; costs and benefits; social, economic and regional development; and policy and strategy fit.

Station appraisal

Four types of HSR station have been identified: ‘city centre’, ‘city-peripheral’, ‘regional’ and ‘airport’. City centre and peripheral stations serve the city and wider metropolitan areas, while regional stations connect regional communities to each other and the capital cities.
Airport stations could provide access to air services for HSR passengers.

For each capital city, a long-list of possible city centre and city-peripheral stations (and associated access corridors) was identified based on market proximity, transport capacity, surface land use and environmental impact. Potential city centre HSR stations were assessed qualitatively to identify a medium-list, with further analysis and assessment undertaken to identify a short-list of stations.

Potential regional and parkway stations were identified on the basis of likely patronage demand to regional areas.

Cost estimation

Costs have been estimated to enable the comparison of various corridor and station options (together with economic benefits and other factors). They have been based on the strategic information available at this stage of the study only and a probability assessment has been undertaken to confirm a confidence range for the estimates.

Some cost issues, such as timing or prioritisation of corridors, are common to all options and have therefore been excluded from the appraisal. Costs were also considered to be comparative against a base option, rather than absolute against a without-HSR scenario.
These issues are expected to be considered in phase 2 of the study.

Costs for the comparative assessment of medium list corridors were estimated using quantities for representative alignments and unit prices developed from actual construction project data. Station costs were estimated on the basis of predicted size, construction method and physical location. It was necessary to use a range of assumptions in preparing these cost estimates, due to the strategic level of information available for potential corridors and stations. Risk associated with these assumptions has been considered using probabilistic estimation techniques.

Further issues for consideration

While this study has recommended a study area for phase 2, it has identified five key issues that need to be resolved to refine route alignments further:

• The Newcastle to Sydney corridor (Appendix A) has significant topographical and environmental constraints. In addition, existing road and rail links are congested, particularly for rail freight. The population of this region is forecast to grow, placing additional pressures on the transport system. There are several options for integrating HSR services with the conventional inter-urban services which need to be examined in more detail.
• HSR access to Sydney’s CBD could be directly to a terminus within this vicinity, or indirectly through a terminus in either Parramatta or Homebush (combined with urban rail services). The analysis in this study indicates significant differences in the capital cost and travel demand of these two options, with a HSR station in Parramatta potentially reducing patronage demand by 10 per cent. Further analysis is required to confirm the preferred location of a HSR station in Sydney, and the potential for integrating existing and proposed urban rail services with HSR.
• Wollongong and the Illawarra Region have a significant population that may benefit from HSR services. However, the surrounding terrain makes the provision of HSR infrastructure challenging and a corridor directly serving Wollongong is likely to have more significant environmental impacts than an inland corridor via the Southern Highlands. Further engineering and environmental appraisal is required to confirm the preferred alignment in this region.
• The phase 1 study has identified an access corridor in Melbourne which passes close to Melbourne Airport. While HSR services will not provide suitable Airport Rail Link services, there are potential synergies from the joint use of an access corridor and infrastructure by HSR and the proposed Airport Rail Link services between Melbourne’s Tullamarine airport and the city’s CBD.
• This study has identified a corridor following the Federal Highway as the most suitable access corridor to Canberra, with relatively low environmental impacts, lower costs and a good strategic fit with planning frameworks. To the south and west, the corridor should follow an alignment serving the Riverina and Albury-Wodonga. These two corridors could be used to access Canberra in a ‘through’ or ‘spur’ configuration. These alternate configurations would affect the length of corridor through Canberra, the form of HSR station and may require a HSR junction to the north of Canberra.

Further operational and engineering analysis is recommended in phase 2 to examine the impacts of these configurations on HSR patronage demand and costs ...

Scope of phase 2

The second phase of the study will build on the first, but will be considerably broader and deeper in scope2. On the basis of detailed investigations and analysis, relevant international experience and the appraisal of alternatives, the second phase will be required to provide advice on:

• The medium- to long-term projected travel market.
• HSR system options that could serve the projected travel market effectively.
• The aggregate and segmented travel demand and market shares that could be expected to be attained.
• Preferred corridor, alignment, transport product(s) and system specification.
• The optimum program for staging the physical construction of the preferred HSR system.
• The specific environmental, social, urban and regional development and economic impacts of the recommended HSR program, and the overall net cost or benefit of those impacts to Australia.
• The nature and cost of complementary access projects and their contribution to achieving the assessed performance of the HSR program.
• The financing needs, financial performance and commercial viability of the HSR program.
• Any commercial financing gap and ways of funding such gap.
• The key risks to the HSR program and its successful performance, the implications of these risks and possible mitigation measures, if any.
• The most appropriate institutional framework for governance, planning, procurement, construction and operation of the HSR program and for the implementation of integrated urban and regional development policies in the HSR corridor.
• An effective implementation plan for creating the recommended institutional framework and delivering the HSR program.

...

From: High Speed Rail Study - Phase One Report Executive Summary, AECOM Australia Pty Ltd for Department of Infrastructure and Transport, 4 August 2011.

Bike Share Station in Melbourne on Oprah

Oprah's Ultimate Australian Adventure has one scene where Oprah walks with the Prime Minister Julia Gillard along the Yarra River in Melbourne. The walk past a row of shiny bright blue bicycles. This is an automated bicycle rental facility (called a "station"), part of the Melbourne Bike Share next to Sandridge Bridge, at Southbank (just across the river from Flinders Street Station). You can just see the solar panel powering the station in the photo of the PM and Oprah. I noticed the station when in Melbourne in August 2010.

Parts of Sydney to be under water from rising sea levels

Greg Combet, Minister for Climate Change and Energy Efficiency has released maps predicting flooding from rising sea levels with climate change in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth in 2100:

“The Government recognises that coastal areas of Australia are a priority for adaptation action, with many communities vulnerable to impacts such as erosion and sea inundation,” Mr Combet said.

“Developed in partnership with the Co-operative Research Centre for Spatial Information, these maps are an important product for the community to understand potential risks to infrastructure and properties and to prepare for the climate change impacts of sea level rises,” he said.

“The maps provide useful initial information to decision-makers to prepare for potential risks from rising sea levels in coastal areas.”

The Co-operative Research Centre for Spatial Information CEO, Dr Peter Woodgate, said the maps used the highest resolution elevation data currently available and were a powerful tool to help communicate potential risk.

The indundation maps show the potential long-term effects of climate change, highlighting three simple sea level rise scenarios for the period around the year 2100: low (0.5m), medium (0.8m) and high (1.1m).

• The low scenario represents future sea-level rise which is likely to be unavoidable.
• The medium scenario is in line with recent global emissions and observations of sea-level rise.
• The high scenario considers the possible high-end risk identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 4th Assessment Report and more recent research.

Mr Combet said that every day, decisions were being made for new housing developments and infrastructure in coastal areas and having this information would help the community prepare for the future effects which climate change could have. ...

From: Coastal maps help Australia prepare for impacts of climate change, Media release GC 69/10, The Hon Greg Combet AM MP, Minister for Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, 15 December 2010

Shared Bicycles in Melbourne

When in Melbourne for Moodle Moot Au 2010 I noticed a row of shiny new blue bicycles next to Sandridge Bridge, at Southbank (just across the river from Fliders Street Station). This is an automated bicycle rental facility (called a "station"), part of the Melbourne Bike Share. The most useful feature of this system is that you do not have to return the bicycle to where you got it from, so you can rent from one station, pedal to another station and return the bicycle there. There is a very useful map showing where the bicycles are.

However, none of the bicycles from Sandridge Bridge seem to be out. I considered renting one, but then realised I did not have a helmet (which is required by law). The lack of helmets with the bicycles makes them of very limited use. The European cities I have seen similar schemes in (such as Berlin's Rent-a-Bike) do not require helmets. It may take some local ingenuity to get around the helmet problem to make the scheme a success in Australia.

TAFE VC Learning Management System

One of the vendors at Moodle Moot Au 2010 was TAFE VC. This is funded by the Victorian Government to provide online services for TAFEs and other organisations delivering vocational training. TAFE VC provide a hosted Moodle service and other e-learning tools as their TAFE VC Learning Management System. This appears to be needed as Victorian TAFEs do not have a state wide online system to use. It would seem to offer interesting flexibility, as it can also include commercial vocational training providers as well as government ones. There are commercial non-government e-learning hosting services which should also be considered. But particularly for small education providers with limited experience of e-learning software, this could be a good option to get started.

Echo 360 Lecture Capture System

One of the vendors at Moodle Moot Au 2010 was Echo 360 with their Lecture Capture System. This grew out of Lectopia (or iLecture System) developed at the University of WA. It happens I had seen an early version of this system in use at the UWA's Albany campus, when a consultant for government.

Echo 360 now offer custom hardware for lecture theatres, called their "EchoSystem Capture Appliance". This takes VGA from a computer, along with video and audio and digitises it all. The files are sent to a central server, incorporated in the LMS and if needed, Podcast. Echo 360 had a demonstration unit with a transparent case on display. I suggested offering this model to the Department of Defence and other security organisations, as it would allow the unit to be easily inspected for tampering.

Moodle for iPhone and Android

Unfortunately I missed the keynote presentation for Moodle Moot Au 2010 as I was still trying to get my slides to work. So my first session was Mobile Learning
with "Moodle Mobile" by Romain Mallard, Angela Branco Moreno and Cesar Barizon (Digital SK), followed by myself with "Using Moodle for Postgraduate Professional Education with eBooks and Smartphones" (ANU) and "Moodle4iPhone project" by Julian Ridden (Pukunui Technology). All three of us had a similar message: don't build special phone "apps" for Moodle, instead make sure the web features used are compatible with smart phones, including the Apple iPhone and Google Andriod.

Julian talked about the Moodle4iPhones project, which has expanded to now include Android phones as well as iPhones. New code is due shortly. Limiting smart phone development to iPhone and Android seems a reasonable compromise, until there is more HTML5 standard support on smart phones.

Julian pointed out that a link to the Moodle content could be placed on the Apple iPhone front page, so it looks just like an App, without needing to develop an app. One issue the
presentation raised was that it can be assumed there is "Flash" on all devices, except Apple iPhones and iPads. Given that Apple devices are so popular, there will need to be a way to support them. Moodle4iphone uses th clever workaround of replacing the flash video file extension with a mpeg4 one automatically if the user has an Apple iPad or iPhone. This
just requires the content creator to remember to provide a version of their video in both flash and Mpeg 4 formats (should be possible with configure video creation systems to do this automatically). I did wonder if a simpler solution was not to use Flash in the first place.

My takeaway message from this was not to worry about software for mobile devices, just worry about suitable course design for mobile users and assume Moodle will be able to support them. This still raises issues about how a student is likely to use a mobile device in a course compared to a desktop computer. This has implications for course design.

One issue I raised in my presentation and not addressed by the other speakers, was what to do about offline access. An app (or even a printed book) has the advanatge that once you have it you do not need Internet access. As discussed in my presentation HTML5 has an option for off-line access. It should be feasible to easily enable this for mobile and other browsers. HTML5 seems to be progressing much quicker than I was expecting, and, as an example, my conference presentation was done using HTML5, not Powerpoint.

An interesting unrelated comment was that Moodle 2 is taking up a lot of the time of Moodle developers.

Wold first Moodle Moot HTML5 Presentation

Greetings from Moodle Moot Au 2010 at the award-winning Melbourne Convention Centre. My talk on professional e-learning went okay. There were some anxious minutes when in the well equipped (and staffed) speaker's preparation room I found my Slidy based presentation was not compatible with the Microsoft Internet Explorer 8 being used. Instead of carefully crafted web slides, I got a blank blue screen. With a quick update to HTML Slidy, I got this to work. As my web page was using HTML5 (a hot topic at the conference) I am claiming this as a world first for a Moodle Moot presentation. My presentation was in the mobile Moodle session and there seemed to be broad agreement that the way to go was with HTML5 tweaked slightly for Apple iPhone/iPad and Google Android, not using "Apps". More on that in the next post.

By the way during my talk I mentioned how I saw US Marines doing "mobile computing" on a warship: they used gaffer (duct) tape to hold their laptops in place. After the talk I bought a coffee at the convention centre cafe (just to the left as you enter from the main door). As well as coffee, the shop sells items for people setting up exhibition standards., including duct tape, which I took as a good omen.

Learning Language Online

Greetings from Melbourne, where I have arrived for Moodle Moot Au 2010. As well as speaking on Monday, I am chairing the Language Learning session Wednesday morning. Learning language online sounds an interesting topic, but one I know little about (apart from once advising on if Moodle would work with ancient Hebrew). But the chairing should not be too hard as there are only two speakers:

1. Moodle Enhanced Language Learning: Our journey with Embassy Smart Express and Moodle by Neil McRudden, Gareth Hughes (Study Group)

2. Moodle and the flexible delivery of small enrolment languages, by McComas Taylor (The Australian National University).

Using Moodle for Postgraduate Professional Education

The draft notes and slides for my talk "Using Moodle for Postgraduate Professional Education with eBooks and Smartphones" at Moodlemoot AU 2010, in Melbourne on 12 July 2010 are now available. I would welcome comments and corrections.

Please note that I am just an IT practitioner, who runs some courses. I will leave the educational theory to my colleague: Srinivas Chemboli, Lauren Kane and Lynette Johns-Boast, with their presentation: "Translating Learning Outcomes in Moodle".