Robert Ayson and
Desmond Ball will speak on "
Escalation in the East China Sea: A Political and Military Possibility" at the Australian National University in Canberra, 5:30pm,
11 November 2014.
Event Details
Presented by the Strategic & Defence Studies Centre
Even if the leaders of China and
Japan can lessen the significant political tensions between North Asia’s
two biggest powers, the East China Sea dispute could still spark a
bilateral war which might also bring in the United States. A recent
spate of near misses shows that a minor armed clash is eminently
possible. Nationalist sentiment and the lack of crisis management
mechanisms could make restraint difficult once this occurs. Japan’s
reluctance to use force may be less extensive than some assume and its
connections to US strategy and C4SIR systems increase the prospects of
early American participation. China’s command and control
vulnerabilities could create serious pre-emption pressures if Beijing
thought a larger conflict was possible. Moreover American attacks on
China’s C4SIR systems and its conventional maritime and missile forces
might create perverse incentives for China to use its nuclear weapons
early while it was still confident in its physical ability to do so.
Australian defence planners should
not assume that China and Japan are going to be able to keep their tense
relationship in the East China Sea below the threshold of armed
violence. Neither should they assume that China, Japan, and the United
States will find it easy to avoid a very serious escalation once minor
hostilities have occurred. This seminar presentation marks the launch of a new SDSC Centre of Gravity
paper by Robert Ayson and Desmond Ball entitled "Escalation in North
Asia: A Strategic Challenge for Australia", based on their forthcoming Survival article "Can a Sino-Japanese War Be Controlled?".
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