UAVs Over the Indian Ocean

The India and China at Sea: Competition and Coexistence in the Indo-Pacific Conference is underway at the ANU in Canberra. The topic of the role of aircraft carriers and submarines came up in the first session so I asked the panel if Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), and Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) would render large vessels obsolete, changing the balance of power in the Indian Ocean.

Within the next ten years, I suggest, countries in the region, including China, will be able to mass produce small, long range, low cost drones on the production lines set up for smart-phones and consumer appliances. India will be able to harness its skilled IT workforce to program their own drones manufactured in the new high hi-tech industrial corridors being built with Japanese funding.

These low cost robot aircraft and submarines will make make aircraft carriers and submarines as useful as the battleship HMS Prince of Wales, was for defending Singapore. This powerful ship was commissioned in January 1941, but sunk by aircraft in December 1941, two days after leaving Singapore.

One of the conference panel thought Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles more of a threat than drones. The other panelist pointed out that India is the major customer for Israeli UAVs. With the signing of arms limitations agreements, India will be able to acquire armed UAV technology from Israel.

I suggest UAV/AUV technology, unlike ballistic missiles, is not something easily regulated. At the annual Australian UAV Challenge, teams of hobbyists and students test their technology in the field. In last years challenge, teams had to scan for a survivor on the ground and drop supplies to them. In this years challenge, teams had to coordinate two aircraft, with one acting as an airborne communications relay for the other.

Much of the software developed for the UAV Challenge is open source. It is not difficult to imagine the same software being used for a flock of military UAVs to search the ocean for warships,  relaying the coordinates to a flotilla of armed AUVs. This is something a mid-level country, with IT and engineering graduates could implement.

Conference on India and China in the Indo-Pacific

Greetings from the Australian National University in Canberra, where the India and China at Sea: Competition and Coexistence in the Indo-Pacific Conference just opened. This is a welcome change from the events I have attended recently, which have a mid-Atlantic view, that the world revolves around Europe and the USA.

PROGRAM

9.30am Welcome and introduction: Professor Craig Jeffrey, Director and CEO, Australia India Institute.Professor Rory Medcalf, Head, National Security College, Australian National University
9.50am Sino-Indian relations in the Indian Ocean: a contest of status and legitimacy. Dr David Brewster, Senior Research Fellow, National Security College
11.05am Morning tea11.25am China's emerging Indo-Pacific naval strategy:Professor You Ji, University of Macau
12.40pm Lunch
1.40pm New Delhi at Sea:  The China Factor in Indian Ocean Policy under the Modi and Singh governments: Mr Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, Foreign Editor, Hindustan Times
2.55pm Afternoon tea
3.15pm Aspects of India’s evolving naval strategy in the Indian Ocean: Mr Abhijit Singh, Senior Fellow, Observer Research Foundation. Ms Darshana Baruah, Carnegie India
4.30pm Conclusion

Terrorism Funded by BBQ Charcoal Smuggling

Greetings from the Australian National University in Canberra, where Alan Cole OBE of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime is speaking on "The ‘southern route’ and Indian ocean maritime crime". UNODC is looking for interns to work in the UNODC Maritime Crime Programme.

After discussing how the UN helped with the legal issues of warships dealing with piracy in the Indian Ocean. The UN has arranged for countries in the region to set up courts and prisons to accept those arrested for piracy.

Dr. Cole went on to the largely unsolved problem of interdicting drug trafficking outside territorial waters. While piracy is covered by international law, drug smuggling is under national jurisdiction and so difficult to deal with on the high seas.

Dr. Cole then made the surprising point that charcoal is being smuggled to fund Al Shabaab. Apart from the difficulty of finding a legal way to board ships and deal with people apprehended with something as harmless as charcoal, there is the issue of how to dispose of the seized cargo. In the case of charcoal it cannot be simply tipped overboard, as there could be hundreds of tons, which will float and be a pollutant. Reselling the contraband creates a risk of corruption and disrupting local markets. One option I suggest might be to turn the charcoal into briquettes or to burn it in the nearest coal fired power station or furnace. 

Indian Ocean Security Issues

Greetings from the Australian National University in Canberra, where Clive Williams is speaking on "Security Issues in the Indian Ocean: Maldives Case Study". Professor Williams pointed out that the Maldives is smaller than the ACT and vulnerable to sea level rises. There were 108 people killed in the 2008 tsunami. The RAF had an airbase in the Maldives, but this was moved to Diego Garcia, about 1,000 km south. The Commonwealth suspended the Maldives from its democracy and human rights committee due to suspected violations. The Maldives is a  Sunni Islam state. The defence force has a budget of $45M with some patrol boats, acting essentially as a supplement to the police force, which are essentially water police.

The Chinese Peace Ark hospital ship recently visited the islands. However, the Maldives government is unlikely to permit a permanent PLA Navy presence due to pressure from India. Professor Williams referred to "Indian Ocean : a sea of uncertainty", by Leighton G. Luke (Future Directions International, 2012).

Professor Williams  discussed the idea of an Australian funded police training centre for the Indian Ocean region located in the Maldives. Although I did wonder if Western Australia would be a better location.

The issue of Indian Ocean security is topical with the Australian Prime Minister having just announced that two second hand Bay-class patrol boats would be donated to Sri Lanka. These vessels are used by customs in Australia and so are very lightly armed with one machine gun, but are likely to be up-gunned by Sri Lanka. 

The Centre for Military & Security Law, ANU College of Law invite you to attend a Public Lecture: Security Issues in the Indian Ocean: Maldives Case Study, to be presented by Clive Williams MG, Visiting Professor at the Centre for Military and Security Law, ANU College of Law.

The Maldives is seen by many Australians as a tranquil paradise and ideal holiday destination - but it faces serious security challenges related to growing Islamisation, stymied democracy, political corruption, organised crime, and a subverted judiciary. It also has a constitution that is in breach of human rights law. The Maldives has a range of connections to regional countries and these often affect the Maldives' security situation.

Security Issues in the Indian Ocean

Clive Williams will speak on "Security Issues in the Indian Ocean: Maldives Case Study", at the Australian National University in Canberra, 5.30 pm 19 November 2013.

The Centre for Military & Security Law, ANU College of Law invite you to attend a Public Lecture: Security Issues in the Indian Ocean: Maldives Case Study, to be presented by Clive Williams MG, Visiting Professor at the Centre for Military and Security Law, ANU College of Law.

The Maldives is seen by many Australians as a tranquil paradise and ideal holiday destination - but it faces serious security challenges related to growing Islamisation, stymied democracy, political corruption, organised crime, and a subverted judiciary. It also has a constitution that is in breach of human rights law. The Maldives has a range of connections to regional countries and these often affect the Maldives' security situation.

Indian Ocean Wide Tsunami Watch

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii issued a Indian Ocean Wide Tsunami Watch at 08:45 UTC on 11 April 2012. This followed a Magnitude 8.7 earthquake off the western coast of Northern Sumatra (Indonesia) at 08:39 UTC. The latest bulletin, number 4 at 10:54 UTC, reported a tsunami wave of 1.06 m at Meulaboh, capital of West Aceh, Indonesia. A magnitude 8.3 aftershock was also reported. The Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre has not issued any warning for Australia.