Slow Battery Powered High Speed Train for New Developments Between Canberra, Woolongong, Sydney, and Newcastle

Battery Powered Inter-city Train
Under Development, Railway Gazette,
5 June 2023

This is to suggest 200 kph battery powered high speed trains be run between Canberra, Sydney, and Newcastle. The trains would run at the lowest speed considered "high", and be modified diesel-electric units, to reduce cost. The batteries would be recharged from overhead catenary wires, extending ten kilometers each side of the stations. The catenary would provide ten minutes charging, while the train slows, stops, then accelerates. This would reduce the size of batteries needed, as the train would be at full speed before it switched to battery power. New settlements would be built, so that stations are no more than 100 km apart, thus limiting the battery capacity needed. The increase in land value from new homes would provide billions of dollars to offset the cost of the rail line. The overhead wires would be powered from the grid at the settlements, with rest of the track would be un-powered, to reduce cost. 

ALP High Speed Rail Proposal

On 26 August 2013, the Australian Labor Party (ALP) released a proposal for "East Coast High Speed Rail". The ALP also published a "High Speed Rail Fact sheet: Implementing high speed rail in Australia". The policy is a good one, starting with planning the route at a relatively modest cost of $52M and reserving land. The system would start with the Sydney to Canberra link. However, the fact sheet published by the ALP gives the appearance of being from the Australian Government, which it is not. This would appear to contravene Australian electoral law.

Plan for Australian High Speed Trains

The Greens party have released "Building High Speed Rail: 21st Century Infrastructure" (The Greens, 5 August 2013). This proposes a dedicated High Speed Rail Authority (HSRA) with a budget of $664M for preliminary work and a $570M environmental impact study. Two lines would be investigated (Sydney - Canberra - Melbourne and Sydney - Newcastle - Brisbane). The trip times appear based on the best current in service technology with Sydney to Melbourne at 2 hours 44 minutes.

Mr. Anthony Albanese, the Minister for Infrastructure and Transport, released the High speed rail study phase 2 report, 11 April 2013. However, the ALP government has no proposals to implement high speed rail. Insetad Mr. Albanese is proposing to build a second airport in Sydney (which would not be needed with a high speed rail line from Sydney to Melbourne)

The Greens proposal does not estimate the cost of high speed rail. My suggestion is to fund the project from the increase in land value along the route, building new cities in regional Australia. New cities could be built rapidly, relying on broadband for many services currently provided by bricks and mortar. This would relieve development pressure on Sydney. Also a second airport would not be needed, with passengers changing from aircraft to trains on the busy Sydney -  Canberra - Melbourne air corridor..

High Speed Train for Canberra Regional Development

Stephen Byron, from Capital Airport Group, will speak on “Planes, Trains and Regional Development”, at University of Canberra, 5.30pm-7.00pm, 27 May 2013. Capital Airport Group has upgraded Canberra airport for international flights and proposed it be a station for a Sydney to Melbourne fast train.

Centenary Seminar Series 2013

“Planes, Trains and Regional Development”

Stephen Byron, Capital Airport Group
5.30pm-7.00pm, Monday, 27 May 2013
Ann Harding Conference Centre, Building 24, University Drive South, University of Canberra

Capital Airport Group’s Stephen Byron will discuss how better infrastructure will have an impact on Canberra and the region.
The Canberra Airport has positioned itself in
2013/14 for international services following the completion of the new $480m terminal. Canberra and the communities in the region are set to benefit from this major upgrade.
Stephen studied Commerce and Law at the
Australian National University and was development manager for Capital Property Trust and Capital Property Corporation.

For more information, and to register for this event, contact:

Hamish Sinclair
Canberra Urban and Regional Futures
Email: hamish.sinclair@canberra.edu.au
http://curf.com.au/
Campus map: http://www.canberra.edu.au/maps/printing

High Speed Rail For South-East Australia

Mr. Anthony Albanese , the Minister for Infrastructure and Transport, released the High speed rail study phase 2 report, 11 April 2013. This looked at the feasibility of Melbourne, Canberra, Sydney, Newcastle and Brisbane being linked by high speed passenger trains. The report finds this technically feasible, with economic and environmental benefits, but media reports have concentrated on the high cost and long time scale of such a project. In my view the project would be politically and financially feasible if built in stages. The Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne sector could be politically justified by eliminating the need for a second Sydney airport and the treat of further aircraft noise over politically sensitive western Sydney electorates. The project could be funded from the sale of land in new "i-Towns" along the route.

Providing a high speed passenger train from Sydney to Canberra and Melbourne would eliminate most flights on one of the world's busiest aircraft corridors. This would free up slots at Sydney airport for other interstate and international flights. It would also allow Canberra to be the second Sydney airport.

Fast train access to regional Australia would allow the rapid development of new "i-Towns". This would relieve development pressure from Sydney and the sale of the developed land in the new towns would pay for the cost of the railway. The new towns would exploit broadband technology to the maximum, to make them attractive and also low cost to develop. Facilities such as an advanced hospital, university campus, offices and entertainment facilities would be integrated and on-line. The railway would provide rapid access to the city for services not available in town. The towns could be built at the same time as the railway, so that revinue from land sales would be avialabl;e quickly.

High Speed Passenger/Freight Trains for Canberra-Sydney-Melbourne

Canberra Airport is planning a high speed rail terminal to quickly transfer passenger to Sydney (Airport willing to fund rail terminal, ABC News, June 12, 2012). The incorporation of freight could make a Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne high speed train service more viable, with freight moved from aircraft to train at the same time the passengers are boarding.

In March Euro Carex ran a high speed test freight train from Lyon to London. The train is actually a modified TGV passenger train used by the French post office for carrying mail. The consortium plans to run dedicated high speed freight trains between European airports to transport freight at lower cost than possible by air. Dedicated freight terminals will be built inside the security perimeter of the airports, allowing container to be moved securely between planes and trains.

Australia would not have enough freight to justify dedicated trains. Instead I suggest dual mode trains be used with passengers and freight. The freight area would be separated from the passenger compartment for security. On high capacity routes a modified double deck train could be used, with the freight on the deck above the passengers. A separate secure upper platform would be used to load freight at the same time passengers are embarking below. The same roll-on and roll off systems as used for aircraft could be used to load the trains and both road transport pallets and air containers could be used.

Reinventing the Australian Government in Sydney

Greetings from GovHack at Macquarie University in Sydney There are about 50 people here for the final session of the weekend event. Currently we are watching presentations from the Canberra node, where there are about another 100 people. They are showing applications using interesting combinations of government data in news ways: turning weather data into 2D jewelery, combining bus stop data with geographic databases to plot the easiest walking route to the bus stop. One of the most sophisticated proposals was Peter Chen's "WatChr" political analysis tool. Another application of notes was "Walk My Way", to encourage people to walk part of their journey before catching the bus.

A summary of the GovHack projects will be presented to GovCamp at University of Canberra on Tuesday:

ps: One of the more unusual uses of government data was an analysis of a proposal for a solar powered very fast train from Sydney to Canberra. This seemed fanciful, but developments in lithium iron batteries, developed for cars have made the batterers large enough to be considered for trains. Obviously the solar panels would not be located on the train but alongside.

Lessons for Planning Canberra from Great Cities

Greetings from the Australian National University in Canberra, where Professor James Weirick (UNSW) is speaking on The Art of City Design: Canberra and the planned capital’s movement. This followed last week's talk on "China’s Canberra: The past and future of Changchun". Professor Weirick started by pointing out it is almost 100 years since the design by Walter Burley Griffin and Marion Mahony was announced as the the winner for Canberra's plan.

Griffin's first action on being appointed was to select an eminent international panel of architects to select the design for the Australian Parliament House. But the competition was suspended on the outbreak of World War One. Later Griffin wanted Victor Laloux, architect of the Gare d'Orsay, to design the parliament building.
Professor Weirick argued Laloux's railway station design was revolutionary, as it integrated the platforms into the main building, instead of being out the back. This was possible as these were clean electric underground trains. The building is now the Musée d'Orsay (with an excellent cafe in old clock tower).

Professor Weirick pointed out the original plan for Canberra had a similar underground railway, which would have brought trains into the city centre.

Professor Weirick then pointed to the "Burnham Plan" of 1909, a "Plan of Chicago" by Daniel Burnham and Edward H. Bennett. This clearly influenced Griffin's Canberra plan, with roads radiating out from a symbolic centre, with a land axis perpendicular to the shore of a body of water.

Burnham also produced a 1901 plan for Washington and San Francisco. The latter plan had the main axis ending with a casino and aligned with a prominent mountain, as Griffin later did with Canberra. Notably more of the Canberra plan was built than those of Burnham. Also Burnham proposed a large statue on the mountain overlooking the city, fortunately Griffin proposed noting so ostentatious.

The plans of Paris, Washington and San Francisco all have an echo in Canberra, just as the Chinese city of Changchun (长春) resembles Canberra. But as QINGHUA GUO pointed out in "Changchun: unfinished capital planning of Manzhouguo 1932–42" (2004), the plan is a Chinese grid with a Beaux-Arts overlay. The same could be said of other plans of the time, Canberra is distinguished not so much for its design, but it is one of the few cities built on a greenfield site and thus expressing the Beaux-Arts plan to the maximum.

Professor Weirick then returned to the role of transportation in planning, pointing out that the World's Columbian Exposition of 1893 was integrated into the Chicago's public transport system, with heavy steam railway and an electric railway (the "Intramural Railway").

Professor Weirick damed the National Capital Authority with faint praise by saying the analysis of Griffin's original transport plan for Canberra was the most useful part of "The Griffin Legacy". He pointed out that if implemented, Canberra would have an integrated public transport system (at last week it was noted that Changchun got a tram in the 1940s and now has light rail and a high speed train station).

Professor Weirick moved on to the "The Vienna Plan of 1860", with its ring road. Otto Wagner designed the stations for the metro, including Karlsplatz Stadtbahn Station. Professor Weirick ended with Helsinki Central railway station, by Eliel Saarinen, who Griffin wanted to involve in the planning of Canberra. Professor Weirick joked that Saarinen design for Canberra, which came second, perhaps should have won (there are similarities to Griffin's design, but no lake).

This was a refreshing and relevant tour of designs realized and unbuilt, for great cities of the world. Professor Weirick combined a discussion of the design aesthetic elements of the planning and the practicalities of modern planning, as it was in the early 20th century. Canberra is to day grappling with the issues of where the city should go: out or up, where to put the public transport and how to resolve public good and private land ownership. The cities of the past which inspired Canberra still have much to tell us today.

Broadband and Train to Replace Second Sydney Airport

The NSW Premier, Barry O'Farrell, has proposed to use a high-speed rail line from Sydney to Canberra in place of a second Sydney airport. Canberra's airport could then be used for Sydney. This is technically feasible, but it might be necessary to extend the rail line to Melbourne to make it viable. Also I suggest the use of broadband to make new settlements along the route viable and to pay the cost of the rail line.

European experience suggested that a rail service between Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne would replace most air travel. Broadband access on the train would also make this form of travel more attractive and something much harder for an aircraft to provide. This would free up the existing Sydney airport for longer trips. Also some international passengers who currently land in Sydney and transfer to Canberra or Melbourne by air, would then instead land in Canberra or Melbourne.

Sydney to Melbourne is the second busiest passenger air route in the world, with 950 aircraft movements per week. A high-speed train could be expected to replace 90% of flights between Canberra and Sydney and 80% between Sydney and Melbourne. Assuming that also 20% of the international flights to Sydney were replaced with ones to Canberra and Melbourne, this would free up significant capacity in Sydney. The use of larger A380 aircraft will also increase Sydney's capacity.

The high-speed train could make new and expanded settlements in inland NSW viable, reducing infrastructure pressure on Sydney. The sale of improved land in the new settlements would be sufficient to pay for the rail line. Broadband Internet could be used to provide jobs and services quickly and at low-cost in the new settlements, making them more attractive to residents. As an example, shared offices could be provided for workers to telecommute from. New schools, TAFEs and university campuses could be built with computer equipped classrooms, allowing access to global education. Medical facilities with instant on-line access to remote specialists could be provided.

High Speed Trains for Australia

The book "High Speed Trains" by Peter Clark, might be better titled "High Speed Trains of the World and Some Slower Ones in Australia". The book gives a brief history of high speed trains from the days of steam through to the present. It then lists examples of high speed trains, but surprisingly includes some Australian examples. Details are also given of the various proposals for very high speed services in Australia.

Australian High Speed Rail Needs the NBN

The Minister for Infrastructure and Transport, Anthony Albanese, released the report "High Speed Rail Study - Phase One" on 4 August 2011. This looks at the economic viability of routes for high speed rail on the east coast of Australia, from Brisbane to Melbourne, via Sydney and Canberra at an estimated cost of $61B to $108B. The first report looks at corridors, station locations, cost, number of passengers, social and regional benefits. The report is open for comment until the end of September.

Scope for New Optimal Cities on Rail Route

The ADC Cities Report, was launched by Minister Albanese in October 2010. This suggested 250,000 to 300,000 people being the optimal size for units of a livable city. Any new high speed rail plan for Australia should include expanding existing towns, or building new cities along the route. The enhanced access of high speed rail line (and broadband discussed below) would allow these settlements to be viable sooner, at a smaller size and at lower financial and environmental cost.

Canberra could be one such city, with one transport interchange for the high speed rail servicing the city. A light rail network would connect the railway station to Canberra's five town centres. Each of the town centers would be increased in population to 300,000, expanding Canberra's population by about five times to 1.5 million, without increasing its area.

Broadband synergy with high speed rail

One major failing of the report is that it does not take into account the effect the Internet will have on transport and settlement patterns. The Australian Government is investing in the NBN, a national fiber optic and fixed wireless network. This will allow more flexibility for the location of jobs and the provision of services. High speed rail could be planned to complement the NBN, allowing new cities to be built in inland Australia. The combination of the NBN and high speed rail would provide access to jobs and services for cities which would otherwise not be economically, or socially, feasible.

Wireless Internet can also be used to increase the allowable travel time for high speed rail. Passengers who have access to high speed broadband will be willing to have extended travel times as they will be able to be entertained, or work, on route. This can lower the cost of the system, by reducing the required speed of the trains, reducing the cost of infrastructure by tens of billions of dollars. The reduction of rail development cost would be sufficient to pay for the entire NBN.

The Internet and high speed rail could also be used to make the delivery of goods more environmentally efficient. While high speed rail is normally considered for passenger transport, it is also used for the transport of high value goods. As an example, the French national railways run a fleet of purpose build mail trains SNCF TGV La Poste. In the Australian case it is more likely that mail and packages would be carried on the rail passenger services, much as mail is transported on passenger aircraft. Palletized freight could be transferred quickly from train to cargo trams, to eliminate the need for trucks.hospitals.

A change is now taking place in the way retail purchasing occurs, with good now ordered on-line and delivered. The change from air to rail for packages would reduce the environmental impact and lower the cost, allowing Australian cites along the routes to be serviced more easily.

The combination of the Internet and high speed rail could replace much of the expensive infrastructure normally needed for building a city, with attractive new settlements built quickly along the rail corridor.

High Speed Rail Development

In the decades since the Australian Government started considering high speed rail, networks have been built in Europe and Asia. The technology has matured to the point where Australia could purchase high speed speed trains from about a dozen European and Asian suppliers.

As the new government report points out, Australia can choose from trains designed to operate on upgraded existing track at lower speeds and dedicated very high speed tracks. The UK and USA have attempted to speed up old track with new trains with poor results. Better results have been achieved by Italy and Germany. The use of magnetic levitation has also not proved cost effective.

The difficulty is the planning decisions needed to make the large investment in track viable. High speed rail makes sense only if there are going to be new cities built along the route and the resulting increase in land value can be used to pay for the railway.

In 1995 I rode a Swedish X2000 high speed Tilt Train being tested from Sydney to Canberra. While the train was very comfortable, the track did not allow high speed. In 2004 I traveled from London to Brussels, Berlin and Hamburg by the Eurostar, Thalys and ICE high speed trains. This technology is now an everyday reality in much of the developed world and is being introduced into some developing nations.

The report

The report was prepared by AECOM Australia Pty Ltd, in association with GRIMSHAW Architects, KPMG and SKMA. Oddly for a government report, it is copyright AECOM Australia Pty Ltd. This is not in accordance with the Australian Government's policy of making documents open access to allow free dissemination. It is suggested the second report be issued with a Creative Commons license. The use of PDF for the report also creates accessibility problems for people with a disability.It is suggested future students be released in HTML format.

Available are:

• High Speed Rail Study - Phase One Report Executive Summary (PDF: 1207 KB)
• High Speed Rail Study - Phase One Report (PDF: 9207 KB)
• High Speed Rail Study - Phase One Report Appendices (PDF: 7783 KB)
• High Speed Rail Study - Phase One Report Full Report (PDF: 16120 KB)

Here is an excerpt from the executive summary of the report converted from PDF to text (note that some tables, graphics and formatting has been omitted):

Executive summary

A strategic study on the implementation of a High Speed Rail (HSR) network on the east coast of Australia (the study) was announced by the Minister for Infrastructure and Transport, the Hon. Anthony Albanese MP, on 5
August 2010.

The study is being conducted in two phases. Phase 1, undertaken between January and June 2011, has assessed the likely range of costs, identified potential corridors and stations, estimated the potential future market demand for HSR, and considered potential social and regional development impacts of a HSR network.

Phase 1 has not examined the financial feasibility of HSR on the east coast of Australia and therefore does not include a benefit versus cost analysis. Phase 2 will examine the financial feasibility of HSR, identify an optimum route alignment, refine patronage and cost estimates and investigate potential financing options.
This report provides the outcomes of phase 1.

Cost estimates and risk

The risk-adjusted cost estimate for the implementation of an overall HSR network would fall within the range of $61 billion to $108 billion (in $2011) depending upon the combination of corridors selected, reflecting the level of confidence for this phase of the study.

The risk-adjusted cost estimates include land acquisition, stations and city access, maintenance and stabling facilities, power infrastructure, civil and rail infrastructure and IT and ticketing systems. They exclude client planning and procurement management costs, which are likely to be in the order of 10 to 15 per cent of the estimate. They also exclude operating costs (including a leasing cost for the rolling stock).

The land cost component for the HSR network is approximately $6 billion (in $2011). Acquiring, or otherwise preserving, the corridor in the short-term could reduce future costs by reducing the likelihood of additional tunnels as urban areas grow and preferred corridors become unavailable.

International experience suggests it is unrealistic to expect the capital cost of a HSR network to be recovered.

Corridors

Corridors short-listed for further analysis in phase 2 were:

• Coastal corridors between Brisbane and Newcastle, with potential variations around coastal cities and the Gold Coast.
• The Central Coast corridor between Newcastle and
• Sydney.
• The Hume Highway and Princes Highway corridors between Sydney and Canberra, via Southern Highlands.
• The Hume Highway corridor between Canberra and Melbourne, via Riverina, Murray, and with a potential route option via the Goulburn Valley.

These short-listed corridors lie within the green band shown in the following map. It is recommended that this green band define the study area for phase 2.

The short-listed corridors broadly:

• Follow the alignment of the existing long-distance rail network.
• Provide access to larger regional towns and cities along coastal New South Wales (NSW) and inland Victoria enhancing the accessibility of these areas.
• Have lower capital costs for infrastructure and land acquisition than other options.
• Have the highest net benefits of those options examined.
• Minimise potential impacts on national parks and other sensitive land uses.

Urban access in major metropolitan areas would be predominantly by tunnel. Within urban areas, the combined construction and land costs involved in tunnelling are comparable with those of surface alignments and would permit higher operating speeds and reduce environmental impact.

Regulatory frameworks exist to protect infrastructure corridors in each state and territory, although there are differences between approaches.

Stations

The following city centre station locations were short-listed for further analysis in phase 2:

• Roma Street Station and South Bank in Brisbane.
• Central Station, Eveleigh, Homebush and Parramatta in Sydney.
• Southern Cross Station and North Melbourne in Melbourne.
• Civic and Canberra Airport in Canberra.

Patronage demand analysis suggests that central business district (CBD) locations would be the major trip generator and attractor in each city. Stations closest to the CBD would generate the most demand for a HSR network.Peripheral stations were considered for Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, typically located towards the urban boundary where there is good access to the arterial road network. Zones in which these stations should be considered are proposed, with the final location of periphery stations subject to the optimum alignment of HSR tunnels, availability of appropriate sites and potential transport connections.

Sydney and Melbourne airports have not been short-listed because initial patronage demand forecasts indicate most HSR demand would be for travel to the CBDs, rather than to airports. Further analysis has been recommended in phase 2 to confirm assumptions made in phase 1 regarding demand for access to air services.

The following regional areas have sufficient size and demand to warrant a regional or parkway HSR station, although other regional station opportunities may exist:

• Brisbane to Newcastle: Gold Coast, Far North Coast, Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast
• Newcastle to Sydney: Central Coast
• Sydney to Canberra: Southern Highlands, Illawarra
• Canberra to Melbourne: Riverina, Murray, Goulburn Valley

HSR demand is relatively insensitive to the precise location of regional stations if appropriate access is provided between the nearest cities or towns and the HSR station.

...

Cost estimates and risk for short-listed corridors

The risk-adjusted cost estimates of the individual short-listed corridors are presented below. The risk-adjusted cost estimates are expressed in terms of P10 to P90, derived from probabilistic risk analysis. The P10, P50 and P90 estimates have a 10 per cent, 50 per cent and 90 per cent chance of not being exceeded respectively.

...

Forecast patronage demand

The population of the east coast states and territory of Australia is forecast to increase from 18 million people in 2011 to 28 million people by 2056. Over 100 million long distance trips are made on the east coast of Australia each year, and this is forecast to grow to 264 million long-distance trips over the next 45 years.

On the basis of demographic forecasts, assumed fares and operational characteristics, the patronage demand forecasts suggest that by 2036, 54 million people may use an HSR network each year. Regional demand represents a significant component of total patronage, with approximately 50 per cent of travel found to be related to areas outside Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne.

It is predicted that approximately eight million passengers could travel on a HSR network between Sydney and Melbourne in 2036, and 3.5 million passengers between Brisbane and Sydney in 2036. This equates to approximately half of the projected air market for both sectors in 2036.

These forecasts assume inter-city HSR fares comparable with inter-city air fares.

Travel on HSR between Newcastle, the Central Coast and Sydney is predicted to be approximately 15 million trips in 2036, of which approximately five million would be commuting trips. These forecasts assume HSR fares between Newcastle and Sydney would be $16.50 for commuters, $30 for non-business travellers and $60 for business travellers (one-way in 2011 dollars). Between Gosford and Sydney, HSR fares are assumed to be $14.25 for commuters, $26 for non-business travellers and $53 for business travellers (one-way in 2011 dollars).

Lower fares for commuters reflect a potential subsidy for these trips.

Forecast patronage demand was found to be sensitive to changes in HSR fare levels, but less so to changes in air fares, as regional travel demand, of which air travel is a relatively small component, would be less affected.
Patronage was also found to be sensitive to HSR travel time, with mainly inter-city travel affected, due to the close competition with air.

The study confirmed that inter-city non-stop running times could be approximately:

• Three hours between Brisbane and Sydney and Sydney and Melbourne.
• Forty minutes between Newcastle and Sydney.
• One hour between Sydney and Canberra.

Key project parameters

Key project parameters for the phase 1 study included:

• Economic analysis assumed an appraisal period of 20 years from 2036, being an indicative operational year for an HSR network.
• The network infrastructure would be a double-track standard-gauge electrified line with maximum operating speed of 200 km/h within urban areas and 350 km/h elsewhere.
• Services would initially be operated by eight car sets with the potential for train size to be increased to 12 or 16 cars as required by patronage demand, and would be a mixture of inter-city express services and regional services stopping at intermediate stations.
• Non-stop travel times between the major centres would depend on the precise alignment selected but would typically be around three hours between Brisbane and Sydney and Sydney and Melbourne and 40 minutes between Newcastle and Sydney.
• The patronage forecasts allowed for accessibility of HSR stations, as well as the relative costs, travel times and service frequencies of alternative modes.
• Non urban stations would serve major regional centres, either directly or as parkway stations. These would typically be at intervals of 70 to 100 kilometres, although closer spacing is likely if sections also carry outer suburban regional services.
• Access from the urban boundary to city centre stations in major metropolitan areas would largely be through dedicated tunnel.
• HSR fares were assumed to be similar on average to current inter-city air fares, air travel times were assumed to be similar to current times, and HSR service frequencies were assumed to be hourly or better, depending on route and service type.
• Commuter demand modelling for the Newcastle to Sydney corridor was based on fares of $16.50 and $14.25 for Newcastle to Sydney and Gosford to Sydney respectively (one-way in 2011 dollars). Lower fares for commuters reflect a potential subsidy for these trips.

Overview of study methodology

Patronage demand forecasting

A base corridor was used to predict patronage of a HSR network in 2036, based on forecast travel demand and assumptions about competing modes.

An east coast model and a Newcastle to Sydney model were developed to address the following questions:

• What are the main geographical markets in the east coast corridor that a HSR network could potentially serve?
• What is the size of these markets and how are they split between alternative transport modes (car, rail, coach and air)?
• How would these markets grow in future?
• What is the potential for diversion from existing modes to a future HSR network?
• How sensitive is the level of that diversion to HSR performance and to the future scenarios?

The east coast model was designed to estimate market size and mode share from the National Visitors Survey, which includes business and non-business trips over 50 kilometres between the main cities and the towns in the corridor, but excludes commuting trips.

Travel demand growth was projected as a function of future population growth in the corridor and income growth, based on techniques used by Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE). Models of mode choice and induced travel were developed using a combination of international and local evidence to estimate diversion to HSR services and the induced travel brought about by consequent improvements in accessibility.

The Newcastle to Sydney model had a similar form to the east coast model, but focussed on commuting travel.

Estimates of the market size and mode shares were derived from the 2006 National Population Census.
Growth in commuting demand was then projected as a function of the future population growth projections in the corridor and growth in employment in Sydney and Parramatta. A model of commuter mode choice in the corridor was developed to estimate diversion to HSR services.

The presence of a HSR service to Sydney could substantially improve the accessibility of Sydney’s employment to the workforce resident in the corridor, encouraging a larger proportion of the workforce to commute to Sydney (or Parramatta). A model of the relationship between this propensity to commute and accessibility has been developed using the evidence of current commuting propensities in the corridor (derived from the Census).

Model outputs were benchmarked against international HSR systems and previous Australian HSR studies.
Corridor appraisal Long-list corridors were identified within the study area to enable a broad comparison between, for example inland corridors and coastal corridors. These were selected on the basis of:

• Long-distance travel demand characteristics, including towns and cities linked by air routes. These centres include coastal cities in northern NSW and inland cities through southern NSW and northern Victoria.
• Existing transport corridors, as they tend to link regional cities and towns. These are broadly the New England and Pacific Highways through northern NSW, and the Hume and Princes Highways through southern NSW and Victoria.
• Corridors considered in previous HSR studies to provide a comparison using current population, patronage demand, environmental and engineering information.
• Major road and rail projects to identify potential synergies for inter-operability, congestion relief or shared use of corridors.

An initial appraisal assessed long-list corridors qualitatively against a number of criteria: potential development benefits, potential connectivity with other transport systems, land use and environment impacts, potential future population catchment, and indicative capital costs.

Poorly performing corridors were excluded from further analysis, while the best performing were taken forward to a medium-list.

A largely quantitative appraisal of the medium-list corridors was undertaken to identify a short-list. This analysis was undertaken on corridors from city centre to city centre (including city access corridors). The appraisal compared corridors against a base corridor for each segment of the study area using four criteria: land use and environmental impacts; costs and benefits; social, economic and regional development; and policy and strategy fit.

Station appraisal

Four types of HSR station have been identified: ‘city centre’, ‘city-peripheral’, ‘regional’ and ‘airport’. City centre and peripheral stations serve the city and wider metropolitan areas, while regional stations connect regional communities to each other and the capital cities.
Airport stations could provide access to air services for HSR passengers.

For each capital city, a long-list of possible city centre and city-peripheral stations (and associated access corridors) was identified based on market proximity, transport capacity, surface land use and environmental impact. Potential city centre HSR stations were assessed qualitatively to identify a medium-list, with further analysis and assessment undertaken to identify a short-list of stations.

Potential regional and parkway stations were identified on the basis of likely patronage demand to regional areas.

Cost estimation

Costs have been estimated to enable the comparison of various corridor and station options (together with economic benefits and other factors). They have been based on the strategic information available at this stage of the study only and a probability assessment has been undertaken to confirm a confidence range for the estimates.

Some cost issues, such as timing or prioritisation of corridors, are common to all options and have therefore been excluded from the appraisal. Costs were also considered to be comparative against a base option, rather than absolute against a without-HSR scenario.
These issues are expected to be considered in phase 2 of the study.

Costs for the comparative assessment of medium list corridors were estimated using quantities for representative alignments and unit prices developed from actual construction project data. Station costs were estimated on the basis of predicted size, construction method and physical location. It was necessary to use a range of assumptions in preparing these cost estimates, due to the strategic level of information available for potential corridors and stations. Risk associated with these assumptions has been considered using probabilistic estimation techniques.

Further issues for consideration

While this study has recommended a study area for phase 2, it has identified five key issues that need to be resolved to refine route alignments further:

• The Newcastle to Sydney corridor (Appendix A) has significant topographical and environmental constraints. In addition, existing road and rail links are congested, particularly for rail freight. The population of this region is forecast to grow, placing additional pressures on the transport system. There are several options for integrating HSR services with the conventional inter-urban services which need to be examined in more detail.
• HSR access to Sydney’s CBD could be directly to a terminus within this vicinity, or indirectly through a terminus in either Parramatta or Homebush (combined with urban rail services). The analysis in this study indicates significant differences in the capital cost and travel demand of these two options, with a HSR station in Parramatta potentially reducing patronage demand by 10 per cent. Further analysis is required to confirm the preferred location of a HSR station in Sydney, and the potential for integrating existing and proposed urban rail services with HSR.
• Wollongong and the Illawarra Region have a significant population that may benefit from HSR services. However, the surrounding terrain makes the provision of HSR infrastructure challenging and a corridor directly serving Wollongong is likely to have more significant environmental impacts than an inland corridor via the Southern Highlands. Further engineering and environmental appraisal is required to confirm the preferred alignment in this region.
• The phase 1 study has identified an access corridor in Melbourne which passes close to Melbourne Airport. While HSR services will not provide suitable Airport Rail Link services, there are potential synergies from the joint use of an access corridor and infrastructure by HSR and the proposed Airport Rail Link services between Melbourne’s Tullamarine airport and the city’s CBD.
• This study has identified a corridor following the Federal Highway as the most suitable access corridor to Canberra, with relatively low environmental impacts, lower costs and a good strategic fit with planning frameworks. To the south and west, the corridor should follow an alignment serving the Riverina and Albury-Wodonga. These two corridors could be used to access Canberra in a ‘through’ or ‘spur’ configuration. These alternate configurations would affect the length of corridor through Canberra, the form of HSR station and may require a HSR junction to the north of Canberra.

Further operational and engineering analysis is recommended in phase 2 to examine the impacts of these configurations on HSR patronage demand and costs ...

Scope of phase 2

The second phase of the study will build on the first, but will be considerably broader and deeper in scope2. On the basis of detailed investigations and analysis, relevant international experience and the appraisal of alternatives, the second phase will be required to provide advice on:

• The medium- to long-term projected travel market.
• HSR system options that could serve the projected travel market effectively.
• The aggregate and segmented travel demand and market shares that could be expected to be attained.
• Preferred corridor, alignment, transport product(s) and system specification.
• The optimum program for staging the physical construction of the preferred HSR system.
• The specific environmental, social, urban and regional development and economic impacts of the recommended HSR program, and the overall net cost or benefit of those impacts to Australia.
• The nature and cost of complementary access projects and their contribution to achieving the assessed performance of the HSR program.
• The financing needs, financial performance and commercial viability of the HSR program.
• Any commercial financing gap and ways of funding such gap.
• The key risks to the HSR program and its successful performance, the implications of these risks and possible mitigation measures, if any.
• The most appropriate institutional framework for governance, planning, procurement, construction and operation of the HSR program and for the implementation of integrated urban and regional development policies in the HSR corridor.
• An effective implementation plan for creating the recommended institutional framework and delivering the HSR program.

...

From: High Speed Rail Study - Phase One Report Executive Summary, AECOM Australia Pty Ltd for Department of Infrastructure and Transport, 4 August 2011.

Rail and broadband in place of second Sydney airport

A very high speed train from Sydney, through Canberra, to Melbourne would replace about 75% of flights on one of the worlds busiest air corridors. This is not a new or unexplored idea, from a high speed rail line proposed in 1981, to a "East Coast Very High Speed Train Scoping Study" in 2008. But the mass production of very high speed trains in Asia, combined with advances in broadband and environmental pressures, makes it more feasible.

The Federal and New South Wales Governments are to conduct a joint study of options for additional airport capacity for Sydney. This follows a "National Aviation Policy White Paper" (16 December 2009). It should be noted that the paper is not just talking about an airport and mentions rail transport systems. I suggest that the study should look at a train in place of a second Sydney airport. A very high speed train from Sydney, through Canberra, to Melbourne would replace about 75% of flights on one of the worlds busiest air corridors. Provision of wireless broadband on the train would allow the passengers to do useful work and be entertained. In addition to passengers, a high speed train can also carry high high value freight, such as priority mail, currently sent by air.

Sydney airport already has two underground stations in place and a direct underground line to the Sydney CBD. Work would be needed on the rail corridor out of Sydney, but this is relatively minor, with work already underway for a rail freight corridor.

Very fast trains are now a proven technology, with China and Korea mass producing adaptions of proven European designs.

The cost of the line from Sydney to Melbourne could be covered by the sale of land in new greenfield environmentally efficient towns in inland Australia. These towns would also reduce the growth pressure on Sydney (politically the new towns would be attractive to the current NSW and Federal governments as it would shift the voting trends to the ALP in previously conservative rural electorates). Integration of the National Broadband Network in the new towns would allow rapid provision of services and jobs to the new towns and reduce the cost of infrastructure.

New towns could be built along the VFT route incorporating high environmental and planning standards. Buildings could be designed to use the minimum of water and power, then assembled from mass produced modules. Homes could be designed to accommodate the elderly. Broadband could bring jobs, education and services to the towns quickly. Both government and commercial telecommuting offices could be provided allowing office works to telecommute most days and perhaps have to catch the train only once every few weeks. Each town could have a university campus, as well as a hospital with advanced medical facilities, linked by broadband to specalists.

The pressure on Sydney airport will also be reduced in coming years due to changes in the aircraft used and environmental pressures. The introduction of larger aircraft, specifically the Airbus A380, will reduce the number of international aircraft movements needed. Added to this the Boeing 787 (and Airbus A350) will allow more direct international flights from other Australian airports, reducing the need for Sydney to act as a hub. Added to this, the need for reduction in greenhouse gas emissions will increase pressure on airlines to have aircraft loaded to capacity to increase fuel efficiency. The requirement for passengers to pay the environmental cost of their travel will also dampen demand for flights.

Sydney is Australia’s biggest and busiest city and Sydney’s Kingsford Smith Airport is Australia’s busiest airport, with over 32 million passengers in 2008–09. To ensure the future aviation needs of Sydney meet the expectations of the community and are fully integrated into long-term growth strategies, the Government, in partnership with the New South Wales Government, will work together to plan for the Sydney region’s future airport infrastructure, including how it links to Sydney’s growth centres and its road and rail transport systems. This is the first time that the two governments are aligning their planning and investment strategies. ...

From: National Aviation Policy White Paper, Department of Infrastructure,Transport, Regional Development and Local Government, 16 December 2009

Copenhagen Climate Change Train

The International Union of Railways (UIC) and DB (German Railways) cashed in on the in on the COP15 Copenhagen climate change talks with a "Train to Copenhagen" in conjunctions with UNEP and WWF.

The train left from Brussels on 5 December, travelling through Cologne and Hamburg (a route I have travelled) then Copenhagen for the conference. The usual train from Brussels to Cologne is the Thalys (using French TGV trains) From there through Berlin to Hamburg , using DB's ICE train.

It was claimed the rain ran on electricity from renewable sources. The renewable claim would be hard to prove and it is likely that at least part of the journey would be made using French nuclear generated power. This is not to say this is not a much more environmentally friendly means of transport that by aircraft, overall.

ps: Models of the Thalys and ICE are popular.

Sydney to Canberra Hybrid Fast Train

On 12 February 2009, the UK Government announced that Hitachi trains from the Agility Trains consortium would replace the InterCity 125 trains used between UK cities. This is of relevance to Australia, as the XPT trains used between Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne are derived from the old UK trains. The new Agility Trains may therefore be suitable for use in Australia

Agility Trains will run at 201 km/h and one version will be a hybrid, capable of operating on electricity and diesel. This could be very useful for Australia: the train could run on the electrical supply in Sydney, then change to diesel for the country run to Canberra. While not as fast as Very High Speed trains, such as the TGV (320 km/h) the Angel trains would not require new track or overhead wiring. It should be noted that Queensland's electric tilt train is also partly made by Hitachi.

Very high speed is not needed to make the train trip from Sydney to Canberra by train feasable. At present the rail journey takes more than four hours, at an average speed of about 65 km/h. The new trains could be run from Sydney central station, stopping at Sydney airport and on to Canberra in under three hours. If the trains were equipped with power points beside each seat for laptop computers, as is being done on the refurbished Thalys and WiFi access, as on the Cambridgeshire Guided Busway, it would be attractive to business and private travellers.

Sydney to Canberra High Speed Train

The Canberra Business Council made a submission on "High Speed Rail for Australia: An opportunity for the 21st century" in April 2008. They also light rail for Canberra in an Infrastructure Australia submission. However, it should be noted that the Sydney to Canberra route at 270km could be serviced in under three hours by conventional railways already in service in Australia, with a modest supplement to the upgrade to the track already under way.

1. A High Speed Rail Link between Canberra and Sydney
High speed rail refers to passenger trains travelling at 250km/h or more, on purpose-built tracks. Among the best known examples are the Japanese Shinkansen or bullet trains, the French TGV (Train à Grande Vitesse) and the German ICE (Inter-City Express). The typical operating speed of high speed trains has increased to 300km/h, and speeds of 350-360km/h are in prospect.

The energy required for operation at such speeds means that high speed trains are invariably powered by electricity. Although high speed rail systems are focused primarily on the movement of people, they are being used increasingly for freight, and this will grow in the future. ...

Previously, a journey time of three hours by rail was considered
the upper limit in competitive terms. Now, experience in France is that, of rail and air travel, high speed rail captures 90% market share for rail journeys of two hours; 66% at three hours; and 45% at four hours. For leisure travel, high speed rail attracts a significant market share on journeys up to six hours. ...

Sydney - Melbourne has the fourth busiest air service in the world, with some 70 flights each way per day between the two cities. The only busier routes are between Madrid and Barcelona, Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, and Jeju and Seoul. ...

A route which linked Melbourne and Sydney via Canberra, and Sydney and
Brisbane via Newcastle and the Gold Coast; would link these major cities but further, through the provision of additional ‗stopping‘ trains, would serve regional centres such as Benalla, Albury/Wodonga, Wagga Wagga, Goulburn, the NSW Central Coast, Taree, Coffs Harbour and Grafton. ...

High Speed Rail travel will provide Australians with a more cost effective intercity rail service. Trains are becoming faster, making routes such as Melbourne to Sydney via Canberra, and Sydney to Brisbane via Newcastle and the Gold Coast, each with three hour travel times, well within the competitive distance for high speed rail. More suppliers of high speed train technology have entered the market, adding to competition and lowering costs. ...

Use for freight
As indicated above, high speed rail systems are focused on the movement of people. However they are also being used increasingly for freight. This ranges from use of the high speed tracks by conventional freight trains, where gradients permit (in Germany and Italy, for example), to the operation of dedicated freight trains at the same speed as passenger trains. The latter is the case with the postal TGV trains in France. This activity is soon to be substantially increased as the first step in an initiative entitled Cargo Rail Express which will see a major expansion of
high speed freight services in Europe. Partners in this project, which is included in the European Union Logistics Action Plan, include Paris Charles de Gaulle airport, Amsterdam Schipol airport, FedEx, TNT and the French National railways; see
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,534978,00.html

An Australian high speed rail network could carry freight on either of these two bases (i.e. use of the tracks by conventional freight trains or by high speed freight trains); or the high speed alignment could provide, again where gradients permit, a route for an independent freight track, improving existing main lines by reducing their length and curvature.

Environmental sustainability and reduced greenhouse gas emissions

High speed rail is a more climate-friendly way of travelling that greatly reduces carbon dioxide emissions compared with alternative modes. It is much more energy-efficient and, being electrically powered, has the potential to draw energy from renewable sources. High speed trains are enjoying success around the world because they compete very effectively with air travel for journeys up to about 1000km, and with car travel for trips longer than about 250km. ...

Given the situation, what should be done first?
... The Council believes that Sydney–Canberra (with a terminal at Canberra airport) remains the logical first step in a larger network. The distance, 270km, is suitable for high speed rail. A Sydney–Canberra high speed rail would effectively make Canberra International Airport a second airport for Sydney. ...

2. Light Rail for Canberra
Canberra Business Council has partnered with the Conservation Council to make the case for a Light Rail network in Canberra. The partnering of these two organisations demonstrates the wide-spread support that Light Rail receives across the entire spectrum of community interest groups. A proposal to introduce Light Rail to Canberra is opportune. ...

It would be considerably cheaper to provide Light Rail in Canberra than in any other Australian city, as the Griffin Plan provides the planning infrastructure such as wide roadways, to support its installation. There are open space corridors across the city and major arterial roads have medians or parallel corridors that allow for rail development. ...

The ACT Government‘s Canberra Spatial Plan identifies a potential need for between 58,000 and 90,000 additional dwellings, of which 90% would be contained within 15km of the city centre, and 50% concentrated within 7.5km of the centre within the next 15 years. The development of areas in and around Civic will require additional transport services. Higher densities of residents and places of employment will reduce the cost of providing public transport to these areas. ...

From: Infrastructure Australia submission, Canberra Business Council, 20 October 2008

Sydney to Canberra by Train

In 2005 I wrote about a trip from Sydney to Canberra on a Swedish X2000 high speed Tilt Train, being tried. While very comfortable, the tilt trains were not that fast, due to the poor track and were not purchased. The regular run from Sydney to Canberra is carried out by Countrylink's XPLORER trains. Having some time on my hands, after a Sydney workshop on energy saving, I thought I would try the service. It happens that in the press today there is a proposal to look again at a high speed Sydney Canberra Melbourne train. New technology and a new government now make this more feasible.

Australian Fast Train Proposal

Colin Butcher has produced a series of articles in Railway Digest on the feasibility of running high speed trains between Melbourne, Canberra, Sydney and Brisbane. He argues that a mixed service of passenger and freight is financially feasible. The latest is "Fast Trains - Profit or Loss" (Railway Digest, December 2007). This uses figures from the abortive Speedrail proposal, for a Melbourne, Canberra, Sydney TGV style very fast train, but updated with new costs and an additional freight service. This is similar, but using updated figures from his previous proposal for a "Newcastle, Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne Fats Freight and Passenger Train Options" (Railway Technical Society of Australasia, February 2003).

The Australian Parliamentary Library produced a very useful set of background papers on the VFT proposal, including a Australian Very Fast Trains-A Chronology (Background Paper 16 1997-98, Paula Williams,6 April 1998) and High Speed Trains between Canberra and Sydney (Current Issues Brief 17 1996-97, Matthew James, Denis James). The chronology says "proposals are exceptionally costly compared to conventional rail systems, with the cost increasing substantially for the fastest train technologies". However, as Mr. Butcher points out, the technology has become more affordable and more certain since then.

Mr. Butcher argues that fast trains would be economically viable. However, the difficulty is likely to be the politics and business model for such a proposal, rather than the engineering or economics. The politics of the time demanded that the project be privately funded and it was then impossible for the private sector to capture enough of the benefits from the project to make it commercially viable. The project would have benefited the community by getting trucks off the roads and allowing residential development along the route. But the commercial companies involved were not able to profit from this. Any new proposal has to either find a way to compensate the commercial partners or have a direct government contribution.

Also the VFT suffered from being a "big bang" project. The whole project had to be implemented to obtain a benefit. Mr. Butler's proposals are similar in that they require a lot of investment to be made before anything is gained. This makes the proposals commercially and politically difficult. It would be possible to produce more modest proposals for building on the current upgrading of the current railway infrastructure enough to make some passenger services viable. This would not achieve as large benefits, but would be much easier decisions. These proposals could also exploit new technology which removes the need to electrify the entire track.

London to Paris Faster

In 2000 Eurostar gave me a free trip from London to Paris first class, with a quick visit to the UNESCO's Observatory on the Information Society. I posted a report "live" from the train at more than 200 kph using my GSM phone and laptop. Since then I have made a trip from London to Brussels on the same train.

I was reminded of this hearing a Eurostar publicist on the radio in Australia to talk up the opening of St Pancras International station in London. The refurbished St Pancras, opposite the New British Library, replaces Waterloo International as the terminus for the Eurostar high speed train in the UK. Also for the first time this really will be a high speed train in the UK, as the track to the coast has been upgraded, cutting about 20 minutes from the journey as of 14 November. This required track work and upgrading the electric power supply to allow the Eurostar to run faster. Just to keep it in perspective, even the slow UK trains are a lot quicker than Sydney to Brisbane even though the XPT used in NSW is a version of the UK's high speed train (it is slower due to poor Australian track).

The Eurostar plans originally included the trains at high speed beyond London across the UK (called the Regional Eurostar and Nightstar) but that was never implemented. The rail cars purchased for the UK leg were refurbished and some used in Canada, the UK and France. For the 2012 London Olympics, some of these trains will form the "Olympic Javelin", to shuttle people from St. Pancras to the Olympic site near Stratford International station.

St Pancras was in need of an upgrade. On my visit in 2000 it looked run down, next to the relatively new (but ugly) British Library. Now all we need is somewhere to hire an electric car near the station: electric cars such as the G-Wiz (as the Indian Reva electric car is known in the UK) are not subject to the London congestion tax and have free parking.

ps: If visiting St Pancras, then take time for a walk along the towpath by Regent's Canal from Thornhill Bridge Community Gardens in Caledonian Road, to the London Canal Museum in New Wharf Road.

Further Information

• Books: St Pancras Station; London to Paris by Train; Eurostar; Channel Tunnel and High Speed Trains
• Models of the Eurostar Train
• UK: England, Cornwall and Stonehenge, 2000
• London Travel Tips
• London, Brussels, Berlin and Hamburg by the Eurostar, Thalys and ICE high speed trains