Green Climate Fund for Development

Greetings from the Australian national University in Canberra, where Howard Bamsey, Executive Director of the Green Climate Fund is speaking on "The Green Climate Fund, climate finance, and the imperatives and pathways for global transformation". He started by pointing out the developed nations committed to "mobilize" $100B a year for developing nations actions on climate change by 2020. What "mobilize" means I am not sure. The DFAT "Roadmap to US$100 Billion" (2016) says "effectively mobilize private finance".
reetings from the Australian National University in Canberra, where

Ambassador Bamsey pointed out that the cost of PV solar power had dropped making it economic for use in developing nations. Also he pointed out that green bonds had taken off and the link to Islamic Finance. In 2008 I attended the Malaysian Corporate Governance Conference at the Securities Commission, Kuala Lumpur, the regulator for Islamic capital markets in Malaysia and noticed this link.

The IEA has a "Tracking Clean Energy Progress" page, which Ambassador Bamsey pointed to. He used the example of technology incubators as one initiative (but I am not sure who's or for what). He suggested that most investments are on mitigation and more is needed on adaption for the most vulnerable.

Ambassador Bamsey suggested that China has taken an engineering approach to climate change as the government is full of engineers (whereas the Australian Government is full of lawyers and economists).

This all seemed very general, so I asked for examples of investments and how much carbon emission, or other benefits resulted. This was perhaps because I spent the morning marking ICT Sustainability assignments from my students, where they had to say what improvement their proposals were expected to make.

Unfortunately while promising to get specific, Ambassador Bamsey would not say how much the Green Climate Fund had invested or how much mitigation and adaption this was expected to produce. Not everything can be reduced to a few numbers, but if the world is investing $100B a year, then it would be good to have some idea it was effectively spent. Also worrying is that fund is expected to run out money to invest by the end of the year. Interestingly the ACT Government is working on channeling private investment to the fund, however as a potential investor I would want to know what environmental and social return on investment I will get.

The current Ambassador for the Environment, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Patrick Suckling, spoke next. He pointed to the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) as a successful investment activity.  Ambassador Suckling then talked about having an investment bank rather than aid. I assume this was a metaphor, not the Australian government was going to have a bank to invest in development programs in the region and earn a return on investment.

Climate mitigation and adaptation in the ACT

Greetings from the Canberra Renewables Innovation Hub, where the ACT Government is holding a workshop on the Climate mitigation and adaptation in the ACT: costs, benefits and implications report (22 February 2018). It is going to be a difficult exercise, as this is a sixty eight page technical economic report, presented to a general audience.

ps: It turned out to go well, but this wasn't really a general audience, but a self selected group of experts and enthusiasts.  

My suggestions were:

1. Public-private pocket parks: These would be modeled on the private part at the center of the City-edge development at O'Connor. This looks like a public park but is owned by the bodies corporate of the surrounding apartments. 
2. Pop-up Community Groups: ACT Government would provide a website where a group of residents could register a community group. When enough people had joined, this would be a legally constituted group and receive government support to run a community garden and the like.

ACT Virtual Big Battery Proposed

Greetings from the Renewables Innovation Hub, in Canberra, where I have been attended a workshop on the Energy Efficiency Improvement Scheme (EEIS). This is a suite of measures to reduce energy and greenhouse gas emissions. One proposal is to provide incentives for  Demand Response (DRM) capable air-conditioners. Some participants pointed out that while there were many DRM capable units already installed, few were activated. So I suggested the ACT implement a DRM controller and require all units under the scheme to be connected to it, unless they were connected to an alternative DRM controller. This would provide the ACT with a virtual (and much cheaper) alternative to South Australia's big battery.

Disrupting High Energy Prices

On ABC Radio Canberra Thursday morning there was a segment on high charges for communal hot water systems in Canberra.  In 2013 I asked for an ACT Assembly Inquiry into Energy Billing, as the charges were five to ten times what they should be. However, no action was taken by the ACT Assembly.

If the ACT Assembly will not stop incumbent energy retailers from imposing unconscionable charges, then perhaps new local businesses need to "disrupt" the business model. New providers could assist the body corporate of a block of units to purchase energy in bulk and meter it to each unit, using billing as a service in the cloud.

The ACT Government, along with Canberra's universities, have fostered a start-up community to help set up new businesses using new technology. This includes Canberra Innovation Network  and the Renewables Innovation Hub. I have been mentoring start-ups through the Innovation ACT competition and setting up an energy metering business is no more complex than some new businesses I have helped with.


ps: I teach "ICT Sustainability" at the ANU, on how to estimate and reduce carbon emissions using computers, through such measures as computerized metering.

Global Action from Paris Climate Agreement?

Greetings from the Australian National University in Canberra, where a distinguished panel of diplomats are giving "A Global Perspective on the Signing of the Paris Climate Agreement". This is just before countries begin signing the agreement at the UN in New York. However, even if every country signs the agreement and acts, this will not achieve the reduction in carbon emissions needed to halt global warming. I will be reflecting on this in a guest lecture next week on Green IT.

Will Australia rejoin the World on Climate Change

Greetings from the Australian National University in Canberra, where John Gummer (Lord Deben), Chairman of the UK Climate Change Committee and Special Advisor to the United Nations on Carbon Pricing, is speaking on "Will Australia rejoin the World on Climate Change?". He criticized Australia's proposals of greenhouse gas emissions for the Paris Summit, for using a different baseline to make them look good. He also criticized Australia's linking its response to other countries, especially that of developing countries.In contrast he pointed to the UK carbon budget. Lord Deben argued that because the effect of global warming will global it is in the interests of rich countries to take action. I am not sure that rational approach will necessarily produce the desired effect.

Australian Electricity Demand in the Future

Greetings from the Australian National University in Canberra, where Dr Hugh Saddler is speaking on "Electricity demand and Australia’s renewable energy targets: where to?". He showed a graph which showed that the feared "peak demand" for electricity in Australia did not happen. Also he emphasized that not only is demand for electricity in Australia decreasing, but the decrease is accelerating. Dr Saddler points out that some electricity use is not measured (for example power from a roof top solar system which is used in the household). Dr Saddler pointed out this would increase as companies such as Ikea installed their own PV. Residential use of electricity is about at the same level as large industries, both of these are less than general business. All three categories of electricity use are decreasing, residential most rapidly. The largest factor in reduction in electricity use is energy efficiency, not from PV panels. Detached houses use about 50% more electricity than other forms of housing. Dr Saddler concluded that the worst case would be that electricity consumption would remain constant, not increase. Gas consumption for homes is decreasing due to efficient reverse cycle air-conditioning, but this will not significantly increase electricity consumption. There is less scope for reduction for electricity use in business. Interestingly, the Queensland coal seam gas industry is expected to cause an increase in electricity use, associated with the extraction.

Tristan Edis then talked on "50% Renewables: Have We Gone Mad?". He mentioned "Learning the hard way: Australia’s policies to reduce emissions". He argues that regulatory measures have been more effective and less politically contentious than measures such as a carbon price. He argues that emissions need to be reduced by 80% soon and the cost of solar panels and wind turbines have reduced with volume of production. I am not sure I believed Tristan Edis' analysis, but by considering the political palatability of emissions policy he introduced a more useful way to discuss the issues than previously at ANU.

Climathon in Canberra

Greeting from the Climathon in Canberra, at the Australian National University. About fifty people will spend the weekend considering what to do about climate change in Canberra. Unfortunately the world have no effective process for combating climate change. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process has proved unworkable and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ineffective (about the only thing which is going to curb emissions is recession brought on by China).

I suggest that the UNFCCC and IPCC processes be replaced with on-line working. Canberra has the combination of policy making and techncial skills to do this. For my part I am teaching how to reduce carbon emissions by using ICT.

At a more local level, I suggest the ACT Government abandon plans for light rail, which will increase carbon emissions and implement bus lanes on existing roads. The bus lanes will displace cars and so reduce emissions.These can be used by conventional buses now, renewable fueled buses in the near future and driver-less autonomous mini-buses ("pods") further in the future.

Health and climate change report

Apparently a group called the "2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change" have released a report. I am sitting in a presentation by the authors (Neil Adger, Nick Watts and Anthony Costello). They say the report is available free from the Lancet website, but I am having difficulty finding the actual report, which may be titled "Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health" (23 June 2015
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/
S0140-6736(15)60854-6). A Google Scholar search did not find it.

"The 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change maps out the impacts of climate change, and the necessary policy responses, to ensure the highest attainable standards of health for populations worldwide. This Commission is multidisciplinary and international, with strong collaboration between academic centres in Europe and China. The central finding from the Commission is that tackling climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century."

 The quality of the sound on the video link from the UK is also low so I can't quite hear what the speakers are saying. It is unfortunate that the authors put so much effort into writing a report but did not expend the required effort on distributing the results.

As far as I can tell the content of the  report is the same sort of well meaning but counter-productive material which as been produced by climate scientists, but from a health perspective. The problem is when scientists and specialists try to explain climate change to the general public. By providing simplified explanations they open themselves up to attacks from those with a vested interest in delaying action on climate change and still can't make it simple enough for the general public to understand. At best the public and decision makers will be confused, at worst they will think the scientists are trying to trick them.

What will Pope Francis do about the Internet and Climate Change?

"On the care for our common home" (Laudato si'), the second encyclical of Pope Francis (24 May 2015), touches on the social effects of the Internet and global warming. The Pope does not attempt to debate the issues, but instead point out their moral dimensions. The document has extensive references, but these are to ecclesiastical sources, not scientific ones. This is not a flaw in the document, but a strength. Particularly in the case of climate change, scientists have fallen into the trap of thinking that more facts will persuade people. There is plenty of research to show this does not work. Like naughty children we will debate an issue endlessly rather than do something unpleasant which we know must be done eventually.

However, the test will be what the Vatican does, rather than what it says others should do. What action is the Vatican taking on the use of the Internet and climate change? As an example will priests be trained in how to relate to their flock on-line, as well as in person? How credible are Vatican City's claims to be carbon neutral?

One problem with the document that while the sections and paragraphs are numbered, these are not hypertext targets, making it difficult to point to a particular passage.

Social effects of the Internet

"Real relationships with others, with all the challenges they entail, now tend to be replaced by a type of internet communication which enables us to choose or eliminate relationships at whim, thus giving rise to a new type of contrived emotion which has more to do with devices and displays than with other people and with nature. Today’s media do enable us to communicate and to share our knowledge and affections. Yet at times they also shield us from direct contact with the pain, the fears and the joys of others and the complexity of their personal experiences. For this reason, we should be concerned that, alongside the exciting possibilities offered by these media, a deep and melancholic dissatisfaction with interpersonal relations, or a harmful sense of isolation, can also arise."

From Paragraph 47. Section IV. "On the care for our common home", Francis, 24 May 2015.

 Climate Change

"The climate is a common good, belonging to all and meant for all. At the global level, it is a complex system linked to many of the essential conditions for human life. A very solid scientific consensus indicates that we are presently witnessing a disturbing warming of the climatic system. In recent decades this warming has been accompanied by a constant rise in the sea level and, it would appear, by an increase of extreme weather events, even if a scientifically determinable cause cannot be assigned to each particular phenomenon. Humanity is called to recognize the need for changes of lifestyle, production and consumption, in order to combat this warming or at least the human causes which produce or aggravate it."

From Paragraph 23. Section I. Pollution and Climate Change, "On the care for our common home", Francis, 24 May 2015. 

Climate Negotiations 101

Greetings from the ANU Centre for European Studies which is hosting European Climate Diplomacy Day. International Climate Negotiations 101. The Italian Ambassador called on nations to follow Europe's lead. There was then a screening of the film "The Climate Blueprint". This documentary is about one hour long and in my view is a self indulgent counter productive waste of resources. What the documentary said to me was that the world have no effective process for combating climate change. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process has proved unworkable and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ineffective. The message from decades of the UNFCC and IPCC processes is that they did not work. It is pointless to apply the same process and expect any better outcome. I suggest that these 19th century processes be discontinued and an Internet approach suitable for the 21st century be applied. This would see solutions worked out on-line without massive meetings which are subject to manipulation. I suggest that climate scientists and other experts should stop lending their credibility to the current UN processes as they are thereby holding up progress and placing the population of the planet at further risk. For my part I am teaching how to reduce carbon emissions by using ICT.

Climate change and human rights

Greetings from the Australian National University where Dr Matthew Rimmer is speaking on "Mary Robinson’s declaration of climate justice: climate change, human rights and fossil fuel divestment". Former Irish President, Mary Robinson explains in her autobiography "Everybody Matters" how she came to see climate change as a human rights issue.She latest established the Mary Robinson Foundation - Climate Justice (MRFCJ).

Dr Rimmer then discussed the Declaration on Climate Justice, modeled on the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. There is also a three minute video "Hunger, Nutrition and Climate Justice Conference Animation". 

Dr Rimmer then went through some options for the Paris Accord, such as financial aid, a climate fund and access to Green technology. He also mentioned Tesla's batter technology for homes. However, I suggest that adapting the batteries from luxury cars is unlikely to provide an affordable energy system for the world's poorest people.

While well meaning, I have doubts as to the practical value of such a climate declaration. Demanding fair and just opportunities for the poor and vulnerable is unlikely to change the decision making of those who are rich and in positions of power. What is needed is to provide the poor and vulnerable with a voice in negotiations.

I suggest making use of the Internet to make up of the lack of voice of the poor and vulnerable. As an example, developing nations could be provided with an on-line system which would provide them with real time expert advice in international negotiations. This would counter the advantage which wealthy nations have in negations where they have large teams of negotiators backs up by hundreds of researches.

Developing nations delegates could use their smart phones to transmit what is happening in the negotiations to a team of thousands of volunteers around the world, who would carry out analysis, compare what is happening in other forums and make recommendations. Perhaps such a system would make a good project for Australian Ethical Investment to fund.

Dr Rimmer presented an overview of authors on fossil fuel divestment and examples at universities. What struck me was these were all from the USA (and one from Australia). What struck me was that this seems to be rich westerners deciding how to help poor people in developing nations, without bothering to ask people in those countries what they think. About the only exception to this was one quote from Archbishop Desmond Tutu.

Dr Rimmer's talk follows on from one by Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Professor Broome, one of the authors of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) report.

We'll Always Have Paris: Climate Change Agreement in 2015

Greetings from the at the Australian National University in Canberra, where Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will speak on "The Road to Paris - Efforts to Achieve a New Climate Change Agreement in 2015".  Secretary Figueres started on a surprisingly positive note, saying that preparations for the Paris negotiations are ahead of schedule. Nations are currently working out what measures they can present. Currently there are 38 proposals registered, mostly from developed nations, including the EU and USA.

Secretary Figueres pointed out that Pope Francis and other faith leaders had identified climate change a moral issue. She also referred to the Umbrella Group which is one of the groupings with Australia is notional member of (Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Kazakhstan, Norway, the Russian Federation, Ukraine and the US).

Four issues:

1. How can countries with unique requirements b accommodated?
2. Less progress on adaption, than reductions. This is a particular for developing nations.
3. How to deal with emissions from emerging developing nations.
4.  How will the ecological balance be restored in the next century? The current negotiations, even under the most optimistic estimates will not reduce, let alone reverse, global warming.
5. Ensure legal basis of Paris agreement. Countries can withdraw from the agreement if they are not meeting their obligations.
6. "Who is going to pay for this?"

It seems to me that one way to have the negotiations more equitable would be to have emissions measures per capita. Developed nations would therefore have more to do as each of their citizens are causing much more pollution.

It would seem to me that in terms of international enforcement, it would be best to have incentives for business. As an example, products imported from a non-signatory country could be subject to a carbon tariff, whereas those from signatories would be tariff free.

Last month Professor Broome explained how previous climate change negotiations were manipulated by some developed nations who could afford large well staffed negotiating teams, to the detriment of developing nations. I suggest that the Paris meeting should be held on-line, allowing developing nations to pool their expertise and take advice from on-line volunteers.

Secretary Figueres was not what I was expecting for a UN official, being passionate, entertaining and informative. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is in safe hands.

Efforts to Achieve a New Climate Change Agreement in 2015

Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will speak on "The Road to Paris - Efforts to Achieve a New Climate Change Agreement in 2015" at the Australian National University in Canberra, 4.30, 7 May 2015.

"Christiana is in Australia to meet with the Australian government to talk about the upcoming climate change conference at the end of the year in Paris. Countries are currently developing a new legally binding agreement on climate change. It is hoped by many, that this new agreement will initiate new and decisive action to address climate change from 2020 onwards."

Climate Change Past and Future

Greetings from the Australian National University in Canberra, where Dr Andrew Glikson is speaking on "The atmosphere: past, present and future". Dr  Glikson's field is the early history of the earth and the effects of comments and volcanoes on the atmosphere. The lead to his interest in current climate change and he has written extensively on the topic. He started his talk with the role of water in all life on earth, even that in the deepest ocean vents and then explained that oxygen was required for complex life. Dr  Glikson pointed out that the earth's temperature had been maintained due to CO2 from volcanic eruptions.

Dr  Glikson has not confined himself to academic papers, having made a submission to the Australian Senate "THE THREAT TO LIFE POSED BY ATMOSPHERIC CO2-e OVER 450 ppm” (2009):

"The scale and urgent nature of the of dangerous climate change leave law makers only two options:

Option A: Business a usual, leading to unacceptable consequences of current climate change, including extreme weather events (drought, fire, floods, cyclones) and sea level rise

Option B: Urgent deep reductions in Carbon gas emissions coupled with fast track development of CO2 draw-down technologies, possibly coupled with geo-engineered atmospheric albedo enhancement aimed at gaining time."

Regrettably, so far Australian law makers have chosen "Option A" Business as usual, which will result in adverse consequences for future generations.

Ethics and Climate Change Prediction

Greeting from the Australian National University in Canberra, where Professor John Broome is speaking on "Ethics in the IPCC process" at the Centre for Climate Economics and Policy. 

Professor Broome explained how the International Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) is an independent scientific organization, but taken notice of by the UNFCC, which is the relevant treaty organization on climate change. The IPCC has three working groups on science (WG1), impacts (WG2) and mitigation (WG3) of climate change. The main reports are the equivalent of 5,000 pages and there were 143,000 comments received. 

Professor Broome went to 13 meetings of 4.5 days each and worked out he was responsible for a considerable amount of carbon emissions just commuting to the meetings. ;-)

The scientists are volunteers, not paid by their work. He commented that the structure of the reports had already been decided. The recommendations are checked word by word. There were two moral philosophers included. Professor Broome wrote on "Justice, equity and responsibility" (3.3, page 12) and Professor Lukas Meyer, Graz University, Austria on "Values and wellbeing" (3.4 page 20).

Professor Broome commented on the differences between the scientific authoring approach and that of philosophers (Aristotle never wrote any refereed papers). The philosophers wrote on justice and value, which the scientists accepted, eventually. Also he commented on how the scientists and other academics wrote the detail of the reports, but there was government and political input into summaries (which is all anyone reads anyway).

I have some experience of the process of developing international standards, but not on this scale. Also I have been working recently with educators who come from the social science and have a different outlook on the world to the "hard" sciences.

Professor Broome described how the final drafts were produced with the text on the screen using Microsoft Word track changes, color coded with changes. Controversial sections are sent to a smaller "contact group" in the case of the philosopher's section taking three and half pages for three pages of text. He described how other sections got cut down due to lack of time and people.

What I found most surprising about Professor Broom's presentation was that he was generally positive about the outcome of the IPCC process. This is despite at one point describing how Saudi Arabia attempted to have a graph "censored" from the report, as it showed how the rich nations had caused the global warming problem. The Netherlands delegate attempted to outmaneuver this by having another section inserted (but the Netherlands government was un-contactable and so their delegate could not get approval).

It strikes me the IPCC process is similar to an open outcry auction system, as previously used for commodity trading. Such systems have mostly been replaced by on-line computer based systems, which are more efficient and by having a lower transaction cost, more equitable. The IPCC process excludes most of the people in the world from participating, because they cannot afford to attend the meeting.

Professor Broome described how some national delegations were in continuous voice contact with their experts at home and sending screen captures, taking instructions. If the process is to not be put on-line, then this practice should be banned, as it is inequitable. However, it would be better to put the whole process on-line.

If the IPCC is not willing to put their process on-line, then this could be done by volunteers. If the secretariat was not willing to cooperate, then volunteers amongst the delegates could transmit the video and audio from the meeting room. This could then be distributed publicly on-line and real time discussion rooms of experts, national representatives and the general public could debate the issues and make recommendations to the delegates.

Ethics of Climate Change Prediction

Professor John Broome will speak on "Ethics in the IPCC process" at the Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, Australian National University in Canberra, 5:30pm, 28 April 2015.

The Fifth Assessment Report is the first of the IPCC’s reports that has explicitly given a place to ethics. Two philosophers were included as Lead Authors for this purpose. However, an IPCC report is designed to be a review of scientific literature, and the process of writing it is organised with that aim in mind. Philosophy does not fit easily into that framework. Moreover, IPCC reports are commissioned by governments and must ultimately be approved by governments. Each sentence in the summaries for policymakers has to be explicitly approved by a consensus among all governments. This poses further difficulties for ethics in the IPCC, since ethics tends to be politically contentious.

Professor John Broome will describe how the process went from the point of view of a moral philosopher, and assess how successful the IPCC has been in its aim of taking account of the importance of ethics in responding to climate change.

 John Broome is Emeritus White’s Professor of Moral Philosophy at the University of Oxford, and an Adjunct Professor at ANU. He was once Professor of Economics at the University of Bristol. For the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, he was a Lead Author in Working Group 3 and a member of the Core Writing Team of the Synthesis Report.

Teaching materials on the science of climate change

The Australian Academy of Science has published "The science of climate change", a 44 page booklet intended to explain how global warming is cased by human activities. While too long and technical for the general public, this would be useful for students.

The booklet is available as a web page, and PDF documents (with and without references). I will be suggesting my ICT Sustainability students read Chapter One "What is climate change?", as it provided a good overview. Chapter three "Are human activities causing climate change?" would also be okay for the students (they have degrees in science and engineering), but is a bit too technical for the general public, with several graphs.

The web version of the booklet is well laid out and could be used with e-learning courses. The PDF versions have a portrait layout, with four narrow columns of text, making it hard to read. At more than 7MBytes each, the PDF versions are also too large (and by wasting computer resources will be contributing to carbon emissions). The version without references is twelve pages shorter, but the file is not much smaller (7.1 v 7.3 Mbytes).  About 80% of the PDF files are taken up with excessively large images. I suggest AAS make the images smaller and reduce the PDF file to one third the size (and reduce carbon emissions).

It might also be useful to point out to school, VET and universality teachers, which parts which suit which level of students and include some student exercises. Almost none of the general public are going to read through 44 pages on climate change, but students may well read a dozen pages, if they will get a mark for it.

Climate Change and War

Greetings from the Australian National University, Strategic and Defence Center, where Dr Albert Palazzo (Director of Research in Strategic Plans, Australian Army Headquarters) is speaking on "Climate Change and the Future Character of War". Dr Palazzo emphasized that these were his own views and may not represent Army or Government policy. He has also written extensively on military topics.

Dr Palazzo argued that Australia had a stable government, "non-fragile" educated society an surplus food and energy. However, if carbon emissions are taken into account, Australia has a large energy deficit (most of the energy is in the form of highly polluting coal and slightly less polluting gas and may be rendered unusable). Also the education Australian society has may not suit severe climatic conditions brought about by climate change. A society which is used to dealing with food and energy shortages may be able to cope with hardships due directly to climate change, or indirectly from war caused by climate change. When staying in India and Indonesia, I noticed blackouts were a frequent occurrence (as were interruptions to town water supply). In an Australian city this would bring day to day activities to a halt, but where a common occurrence the population has learned to deal with it.

Dr Palazzo argues climate change will result in a time when wars are more frequent, longer, larger and lethal. However, he seemed to assume that wars will still be between nation states.

Dr Palazzo argued the Australian Defence Force (ADF) would need to be more self contained. That perhaps fits with his paper "Towards a Marine Force" on how the ADF needs to relearn the amphibious operations skills it had during WW2, to utilize the Australia's Landing Helicopter Dock Ships (LHDs).

Dr Palazzo  says the ADF has to become simpler and larger. I am not sure this is the case. Cyber-operations can use small numbers of highly skilled personnel to fight a war on-line. It may well be that the future is energy, food and water constrained, but there will be an abundance of information (and mis-information). As an example it is preferable to convince the enemy they have lost the war by hacking their information systems, rather than dropping bombs on them.

Sophisticated sensor based warfare will be possible at low cost using "commercial off the shelf" equipment. An example is that a smart phone can be put in a protective case and make a very sophisticated C4I device which each soldier can carry. The Raspberry PI 2 makes a very usable embeddable computer for military operations for $35. I asked Dr Palazzo about this and he agreed that such systems could be sued but would require a change in military culture and solving some technical issues.

One example which Australia could follow is Taiwan's locally developed Tuo Chiang class corvettes (沱江). These are relatively small, high speed, stealth wave piercing catamarans. They are intended to counter much larger vessels through guns, missiles and electronic warfare. Australia is a world leader in the production of high speed multi-hull warships, with both Incat and Austal 
making them for the US military. Australia is also a leader in the development of active phased array radar, at CEA Technologies in Canberra. These could be combined to make small, low cost, locally produced hi-tech warships. In a border dispute such vessels would have the advantage of looking less threatening in the media that a large warship and being able to disable an opponent using electronic warfare, without causing causalities.

One of the audience asked about Australia's dependency on fuel from Singapore (and the lesson of the Fall of Singapore in 1942).

The future of human civilisation requires mankind to solve two intersecting challenges. The first is to meet our sustainment, a requirement that grows more difficult as population continues to grow. The second is climate change and the changes it is causing in the earth environment. In combination, both of these challenges are destabilising the efficient and productive operation of the natural and built systems that humans exploit to meet their needs.

This presentation will propose that if humanity is unable to adapt to these changes in the natural and built  systems then the collapse of states or their descent into chaos is likely. This process appears already underway in the Middle East. Such destabilisation will mark an end to a period of relative tranquillity that mankind has enjoyed, and will herald the arrival of a future that will be defined by increasing violence and a more primitive fight for survival.

The presentation will highlight the role of the military in meeting these challenges. It will  also identify the societal characteristics that will help societies survive. Lastly, it will explain how the character of future wars will be different from those Australia has waged in the past.

Social and Political Identity Key to Combatting Climate Change

A paper on how climate change skeptics think, presents perhaps the last best hope to prevent catastrophic global warming.

After listening to many reports from my colleagues at the ANU Climate Change Institute and elsewhere on the science of climate change, I became increasingly concerned that such reports were not helping convince non-scientists and might be harmful. The solution from most climate scientists seemed to be to do more research and hope eventually people would be convinced by the evidence. But it seemed to me that more such reports made the situation worse.

Those who thought climate change was not real (and that there was some sort of conspiracy) would just have their views confirmed by more reports which argued there was a broad scientific consensus. In my own work teaching ICT Sustainability I don't spend a lot of time arguing the case for human caused global warming (as I am not a climate scientist anyway), just strategies to deal with it.

I have suggested that as there is more than enough research on the physical science of climate change and if we want to influence public opinion what was needed was social and political research. What is needed is research on why people believe something and how to change their views. A first step towards that has been taken with "Public division about climate change rooted in conflicting socio-political identities" (Bliuc et al., Nature Climate Change, 2 February 2015). The authors point out the disparity between scientific and public views on climate change. They propose that "believers and septics have distinct social identities, beliefs and emotional reactions". As a result simply resenting more information will not change individual views and just entrench positions. What is needed is to "transform intergroup relations".

Unfortunately, in this short paper the authors do not propose how to do this, but it is a promising start. Perhaps the solution is not in changing people's views of climate change, but concentrating on solutions. As an example, while those for an against politically contentious issues, have not been able to agree on the moral basis of them, they have agree on practical measures to counter the public harm caused (such as with recreational drug use). A similar approach might be taken with climate change. Saying it is the greatest more issue of our time is not effective when the opposing party does not believe it is real, but they might agree measures which curb the problem.