Include Research and Education in Alliance 21 Conference

The "Australia US Alliance Conference in Canberra Australia-US: The Alliance in an Emerging Asia" ended last night with dinner in the Australian War Memorial (AWM). This was a slightly surreal experience, with a lone piper high up on the the AWM welcoming the delegates. Tables were set up underneath Lancaster Bomber "G" for George. My seat looked out on the bomb load, which was a little disconcerting (presumably these are inert). The harpist was next to a field gun. We all stood for the arrival of the Governor General and for the singing of the Australian and US national anthems by an opera singer.

The most useful part of the conference was a discussion at dinner with one of the students of the United State Studies Centre, who is on their way to study international relations in China. I suggest the organiser should reformat the next conference to allow for delegates to hear from researchers and students. This years conference had all the time devoted to politicians, senior academics and lobbyists. I suggest limiting speaking time for such "leaders" to one third of the event and devote a third to hearing about actual research and a third to hearing about educational initiatives and from the students.

Asymmetric Arms Race in Asia

The last session of the "Australia US Alliance Conference in Canberra Australia-US: The Alliance in an Emerging Asia" conference in Canberra today raised the issue of the current arms race under-way in East Asia  (streamed live online). One of the panellists suggested that when China has sufficient aircraft carriers it will use them to enforce its claims to territory in the East China Sea and this will cause difficulties for the USA's management of security in Asia. This assumes that China can learn to operate and protect the carriers, but if it can, there may be no role for the USA in managing security in Asia. It should be noted that Japan, South Korea and other countries in the region are building various small helicopter carriers and submarines, so China's role will not be undisputed. It may be in contrast that the USA's larger warships are not nimble enough to operate in this environment. While the US has a powerful military force, the loss of even one large carrier would be a significant military and political setback. In future conflicts it may not be clear who is attacking who, leaving the notionally stronger force unable to respond meaningfully. In this environment small carriers and conventional submarines may be more useful than large nuclear powered ones.

Renewable Energy in China and The US-Australian Alliance

Tanya Plibersek, Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs is the first to mention renewable energy at the "Australia US Alliance Conference in Canberra Australia-US: The Alliance in an Emerging Asia" conference in Canberra today  (streamed live online). She pointed out that China has made renewable energy a priority. This made an interesting contrast to previous speakers at the conference who emphasised the effect of coal seam gas on energy exports from Australia and the USA. These speakers appeared to assume that China and other countries would be markets for Australian and US gas exports. However, it may be that Coal (particularly when used more efficiently with technology from CSIRO) will be sufficient while renewable energy production is expanded, supplemented by indigenous gas production.

Australian Higher Education as an Export

The "Australia US Alliance Conference in Canberra Australia-US: The Alliance in an Emerging Asia" conference in Canberra (streamed live online) has got onto the topic of education. One of the panel commented that while the USA has some excellent universities, the lower end of their institutions have problems. They also commented that Australia has quality education at the lower level and also high completion rates. There were concerns expressed about high Australian costs making our higher education sector less competitive and we have a lack of ICT and language students. This discussion was interesting but seemed to lack awareness of the e-learning revolution currently overtaking education. The discussion was a little like one about the cost of horse drawn wagons just as motor vehicles where about to render them obsolete.

There are some universities which have started making the change in the way education is provided. As an example, I have been teaching international masters students online at the Australian National University since 2009. More recently I have proposed teaching Chinese and Australian students online together.

Cloud Computing in Trans-Pacific Partnership Negotiations

After lunch I was starting to doze off at the "Australia US Alliance Conference in Canberra Australia-US: The Alliance in an Emerging Asia" conference in Canberra (streamed live online). However, there was mention of "Cloud Computing" in Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations. Cloud computing allows data and processing to be provided online from a remote data centre. This is technically relatively easy to do with today's reliable fibre optic telecommunications and standards. However, it creates considerable regulatory issues. As an example, many government agencies and companies are subject to privacy rules. It may be easy and cheap to store your client's data in another country, but if that country does not have compatible privacy laws, it may be illegal. This applies not just to governments, but to banks, other financial institutions, universities, schools and other organisations.

In addition to the law the actual practises in countries need to be considered. As an example, there have been concerns over security agencies accessing data in US systems. The US government's response has been to reassure their citizens that these measures are targeting foreigners. However, those foreigners include the Australian government and citizens. Another example that Hong Kong has its own data protection laws, but their laws are subject to Chinese government security concerns. It therefore has to be assumed that data stored in cloud services hosted in Hong King and the USA will be read by both the US and Chinese governments.

Part of the discussion I found bizarre at the conference was that the Uber Taxi Application was discussed as a point of contention in international trade negotiations. It seemed odd that this very small application would be worth discussing in such negotiations. A far more significant issue would be trade protection for the manufacture of ships. The USA uses safety and security regulations to limit access to its markets for foreign shipyards. In return Australia has generous subsidies for Australian shipyards (although the current Australian government has made moves to buy more warships overseas).

Shale Gas Priority for US Australian Alliance

Julie Bishop, Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs, spent much of her speech at the "Australia US Alliance Conference in Canberra" today detailing the USA's technological, industrial and economic prowess. However, some of the claims made do not stand up to close scrutiny.

The minister mentioned the remarkable devlopment of shale gas in the USA and its rapidly reducing the country's dependence on imported oil. However, the minister did not mention problems with shale gas, including its the greenhouse gas contribution. This may limit or even reverse the expansion of the gas use.

Also, the Minister pointed out that the USA was the only country to have landed people on the moon. However, she did not mention that the USA currently has no capability to put personnel in orbit. The USA is currently dependent on Russia for access the the International Space Station. The only other country with manned space capability is China (with Russian derived technology). The USA's commercial space developments have the potential to again overtake other nations space development in the next few years, but that is in the future.

The Minister also mentioned US/Australian cooperation on cyber-security, but without detailing what resources are devoted to this effort. In my view, not only the rhetoric, but money and people needed to be devoted to cyber-security, cyber-warfare and information warfare.

Australia US Alliance Conference in Canberra

Greetings from the conference "Australia US Alliance Conference in Canberra Australia-US: The Alliance in an Emerging Asia" being held in Canberra today (and streamed live online). The conference was opened by John Berry, United States Ambassador to Australia. Also speaking will be Julie Bishop, Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs, David Johnston, Minister for Defence, Tanya Plibersek, Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs, as well as assorted generals and former generals.

I am not quite sure why I received an invitation to this event (it is unlikely to be due to my proposal for equipping the Australian LHD ships with F-35B aircraft). The conference covers Asia in relation to energy and advanced manufacturing and I have a little to do with that teaching engineering and computing students from Asia and North America as well as Australia. In August I will be presenting a proposal for Chinese and Australian students to be trained together online.
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Ambassador Berry mentioned the upcoming G20 meeting in Australia.  John E. Ruthrauff, talked on the G20 Summit at ANU yesterday.  Ambassador Berry also mentioned the Gladstone LNG project, funded by the USA and China, which he described as an example of cooperation an leadership between their countries.However, that project has been controversial, due to environmental concerns over the port development and the questionable climate change effect of LNG.

Daniel R. Russel, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, US Department of State mentioned tensions between China and other nation several times in his presentation.

The organisers of the  conference have invited Tweeting with hashtag #Alliance21 and the event is being streamed and some speakers are by video-conference from the USA.  However, apart from that the event is relatively low-tech and very highly structured. This contrasts with the high-tech events I attend which have the technology more integrated and are more interactive and fluid. I suggest that event organisers need to incorporate some un-conference features to make the events more interesting and productive.

The same online working approach is also one which the US and Australian defence forces are yet to learn. The Internet is now a primary field for warfare, both in terms of direct cyber-warefare, attacking systems online and in terms of propaganda campaigns. Wars can now be lost by not defending online systems and by not being able to present a credible online threat to deter attack. Wars can also be lost by not being able to present the appropriate perceptions via social media. Worryingly other nations have shown more interest in cyber-warfare and even small terrorist organisations have shown greater ability to use the Internet to further their views online than have the USA and Australia. I helped put an Australian military exercise online in 1995 and a joint US Australian Exercise online in 1997. Australia's ability to use the Internet to further strategic interests does not appear to have expanded appreciably in the following decade. I asked Major General Richard L. Simcock, II (Deputy Commander, US Marine Corps Forces, Pacific) about this and he responded that "cyber information warfare is the critical battle space of today".

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Program

0830 MC INTRODUCTION Mr John Barron
WELCOME
Professor Bates Gill, Chief Executive Officer, the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney
The Honourable John Berry, United States Ambassador to Australia

0845 KEYNOTE VIAVIDEO LINK
Mr Daniel R. Russel, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, US Department of State
Introduced by Professor Bates Gill
0915 Major General Richard L. Simcock, II, Deputy Commander, US Marine Corps Forces, Pacific
Introduced by The Honourable Robert Hill AC

0945 RESOURCES AND ENERGY
Keynote address: Mr Roy Krzywosinski
Managing Director, Chevron Australia
Introduced by Mr Tony Wood
1005 Panel discussion
The Honourable Martin Ferguson AM, Director, BG Group/ Chair, Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association Advisory Board
Mr Ian Kemish AM, Strategic Advisor, Asia Pacific, ExxonMobil
Mr Roy Krzywosinski, Managing Director, Chevron Australia
Chair: Mr Tony Wood, Energy Program Director, Grattan Institute

1100 MORNING TEA

1115 KEYNOTE
The Honourable Julie Bishop MP, Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs
Introduced by Professor Bates Gill

1200 LUNCH

1230 TRADE AND INVESTMENT
Lunch Keynote address: The Honourable Andrew Robb MP, Australian Minister for Trade
Introduced by Professor Geoffrey Garrett
1310 Video address: Ambassador Michael Froman, United States Trade Representative, Executive Office of the President
1315 Panel discussion
Mr Grant Aldonas, Principal Managing Director, Split Rock International, Former US Undersecretary for International Trade
Mr Andrew L. Stoler, Consultant, international trade issues and negotiations, Former Deputy Director WTO, Former Executive Director, Institute for International Trade, University of Adelaide
Chair: Professor Geoffrey Garrett, Co-Director Alliance 21, Dean, Australian School of Business, University of NSW, Dean (Designate), The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

1400 KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY / ADVANCED MANUFACTURING
Video interview:
Mr Jason Miller, Deputy Director, National Economic Council, The White House
Mr Kevin Kolevar, Vice President, Government Affairs and Public Policy, The Dow Chemical Company
Chair: The Honourable Robert Hill AC, Co-Director Alliance 21, Adjunct Professor in Sustainability, US Studies Centre, Former Australian Minister for Defence, Minister for the Environment, Ambassador to the UN
1415 Panel discussion
Mr Innes Willox, Group Chief Executive, Australian Industry Group
Mr John Pollaers, Chief Executive Officer, Pacific Brands, Chair, Advanced Manufacturing Council, Australia
Dr John Daley, Chief Executive Officer, Grattan Institute
Chair: The Honourable Robert Hill AC, Co-Director Alliance 21, Adjunct Professor in Sustainability, US Studies Centre, Former Australian Minister for Defence, Minister for the Environment, Ambassador to the UN

1530 AFTERNOON TEA

1545 POLITICS AND SECURITY IN AN EMERGING ASIA
Keynote address: The Honourable Tanya Plibersek MP, Deputy Leader of the Opposition, Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Development
Introduced by Professor Russell Trood
1615 Panel discussion
Ambassador Karl Eikenberry, William J. Perry Fellow in International Security at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, former US Ambassador to Afghanistan, retired US Army Lt. General
Mr Douglas H. Paal Vice President for Studies, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Former Director of the American Institute in Taiwan, former Senior Director for Asian Affairs and Special Assistant to the President, US National Security Council
Mr Allan Gyngell AO, Former Director-General, Office of National Assessments, Australia
Lieutenant General Peter Leahy, National Security Institute, University of Canberra, Former Chief of the Australian Army
Chair: Professor Russell Trood, School of Government and International Relations, Griffith University, Adjunct Professor, Defence and Security Program, US Studies Centre, Former Liberal Senator for Queensland

1715 CLOSE
Professor Bates Gill, Chief Executive Officer, the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney

1745 DEPART FOR AUSTRALIAN WAR MEMORIAL

DINNER WITH GUEST OF HONOUR THE GOVERNOR-GENERAL HIS EXCELLENCY GENERAL THE HONOURABLE SIR PETER COSGROVE AK MC (Retd)
Australian War Memorial

1800 DRINKS RECEPTION
1845 GUESTS SEATED
1910 PROFESSOR BATES GILL, Chief Executive Officer, the United States Studies Centre
Entrees served
1925 THE GOVERNOR-GENERAL, HIS EXCELLENCY GENERAL THE HONOURABLE SIR PETER COSGROVE AK MC (RETD)
1930 THE HONOURABLE DR BRENDAN NELSON, Director, Australian War Memorial
Mains served
1950 SENATOR THE HONOURABLE DAVID JOHNSTON
Minister for Defence and Senator for Western Australia, also officially representing the Honourable Tony Abbott MP, Prime Minister of Australia
2010 THE HONOURABLE ROBERT HILL AC, Co-Director Alliance 21, Adjunct Professor in Sustainability, US Studies Centre, Former Australian Minister for Defence, Minister for the Environment, Ambassador to the UN
2015 END OF FORMAL SPEECHES
Dessert served
2130 FINISH

Alliances under austerity: what does America want?

Greetings from University House at the Australian National University in Canberra, where Dr Bates Gill, CEO of the US Studies Centre is speaking on "Alliances under austerity – what does America want?". Dr Gill said it was a delight to spend time learning more about the Australian end of the relationship with the USA. He has spent three decades writing on strategic issues in the Asian region, with numerous books.

The public perception is that US defense spending is declining, whereas that of China, India and other Asian countries is increasing. Dr Gill pointed out that defense spending has been declining in western countries over the last few years, But over ten years, defense spending is still high by historical standards. Australia and Korea have increased spending, whereas there has been a decline in Europe.

Dr Gill  pointed out there was a more diffuse threat environment. He suggested that the USA wanted more flexibility and independence from its allies. He suggested that this predates the global financial crisis. He suggested the framework for security should be broadened to include cultural engagement(seems a good idea to me as the USA on its own has not been good at winning hearts and minds).

In my view what seemed to be missing from Dr Gill's  analysis was they type of soft diplomacy used by China, with a combination of very targeted aid and economic investment. On a visit to Samoa, I noticed that the US Peace Corps office was being guarded by local staff wearing Chinese People's Liberation Army caps.

While on a visit to Sri Lanka recently, I was surprised to find the hotel full of US military officers there for a Multinational Communication Interoperability Programme workshop. Down the coast, China funded the Port of Hambantot which has strategic implications.

Dr Gill suggested more prepositioning of US equipment in the Asian region would be needed. This is a somewhat controversial issue in Australia, with a recent article in  Online Opinion magazine asking "Is Central Australia the geostrategic centrepiece in the USA's new look east policy?".

Dr Gill suggested  the USA wanted to engage China in ways which both assure and deter. He said this would be "tricky".


I suggest that Australia needs to be clear on what it wants from the relationship and what it needs to contribute and the limits of USA's capabilities. As an example, it appears that Australia is planning to build 12 long range, very large, conventional submarines, for the Collins Class Submarine Replacement Project. Essentially Australia will attempt to build conventional submarines using technology from the USA's nuclear boats. There are both strategic and practical difficulties with this approach.

If larger replacements for the Collins Class Submarines can be built, they will be integrated into the US submarine strategic forces. This may involve Australia in wars far from its shores, preempting Australian political decisions. This could result in Australia being the target of retaliation using strategic weapons, as a way for the USA's opponents to send it a message.

The USA has no recent experience of building conventional submarines and Australia has a poor record of building such submarines. It is almost certain that the project will result in the underwater equivalent of the failed US Zumwalt Class Destroyer project. Australia will spend  billions of dollars and after more than a decade have, at best, one operational submarine. An alternative strategy would have European built submarines of a proven design, which will protect Australia, rather than project power.


One issue Dr Gilldid not address is cyber-warfare. China is reported to be heavily investing in this area, partly because it is cost effective. So perhaps the USA and Australia should be investing more in this area. Australia regularly hosts military exercises, where Australian, US and other forces practice. Some of these are "staff" exercises, run in an office with no real weapons, others have ships, aircraft, vehicles and tens of thousands of personnel. Alongside this can be cyber-war games. At present this is seen in Australia and the USA as a secretive practice for a very small number of personnel. I suggest a change of view is needed, to where it is seen as a mainstream activity, which many personnel will be involved in, alongside civilian security agencies, police, industry and academia. It needs to be realized that the most potent cyber-weapons are civilian systems, not military ones (just as civilian aircraft and ships are taken up for military use during mobilization).

In this lecture, Dr Bates Gill, CEO of the US Studies Centre brings his considerable expertise of American policymaking to bear to examine how the effects of the global financial crisis and American budget crunch are changing the United States’ alliance relationships. As part of the US ‘pivot’ to Asia, Washington will have new expectations, requests and demands of its key allies, including Australia. How will financial decisions affect US strategy? Will this mean Australia has to share a higher security burden or could it lead to an increased voice and influence for Australia in shaping the US approach to the Asia-Pacific.

Dr Bates Gill commenced as CEO of the US Studies Centre in October 2012 after a five year appointment as the Director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. He previously led major research programmes at public policy think tanks in Washington, DC (Brookings Institution and Center for Strategic and International Studies) and in Monterey, California (Monterey Institute of International Studies). He has also served as a consultant to US companies, foundations, and government agencies, especially with regard to their policies in Asia. He received his PhD in foreign affairs from the University of Virginia, and, in addition to his experience in the USA, has lived and worked for lengthy periods in France, Switzerland, Sweden, and China.

Barack Obama at University of Sydney

Greetings from the University of Sydney, where I was startled to see US President Barack Obama standing in the main quad of the university a few minutes ago. On closer examination this turned out to be a President Barack Obama Life Size Cutout (available from Amazon.com) to promote the United State Studies Centre at the University of Sydney Information Day.