Failure of the War on Terror

Greetings from the Australian National University in Canberra, where David Kilcullen, is speaking about his book "Blood Year: Islamic State and the Failures of the War on Terror". He started with the bold claim that the US invasion of Iraq was as a strategic mistake as Hitler's invasion of the USSR. He argues that the invasion created ISIS. The USA then failed to take the opportunity with the disarray on the death of Osama bin Laden, to eliminate
al-Qaeda. With the failure of the
Arab Spring and reintroduction of autocratic governments, liberation movements were required to turn to
al-Qaeda. Similarly the withdrawal of the US forces from Iraq removed curbs on the government and forced opponents into the hands of al-Qaeda. Kilcullen argued that the USA's having  Russia assist in the removal of Syria's chemical weapon emboldened Russia to later intervene militarily. The intervention of Iran then caused problems for countries in the region who see this as much of a threat as ISIS.

Kilcullen then attributed the introduction of a transit visa by
Republic of Macedonia, and call-up of Syrians for military service, causing the refugee influx to Europe. He does not seem to see this as a military threat to Europe, just something which has finally got the attention of European government about Syria.

I asked if a US "President Trump" would understand how to take a patient long term approach to building democratic structures in middle eastern countries, Kilcullen commented that he was more worried about a President Cruz or Clinton.

Finding Potential Terrorists Online

Greetings from the regular Information Retrieval meeting at CSIRO in Canberra, where

Omid Rezvani (ANU) is speaking on "Community detection in large networks". The idea is that you can look at the links between people on-line to identify communities. This is typically used for targeted marketing: if someone in the identified group like a product, the others are likely to as well. Another use for the technology, I suggest, is to find people at risk of being recruited by terrorist groups (which the PM is concerned about). There has been some recent research on this.

One website and twenty million students to change the world

Malala Yousafzai's speech to the UN ended with: "One child, one teacher, one pen and one book can change the world. Education is the only solution. Education First." (12 July 2013). I suggest we can honor that sentiment, and change the world, much faster with e-learning mobile Internet devices, than pens and books.

The Australian government is proposing to fund civil society organisations to counter extremist websites and social media). I have suggested this be expanded to provide e-learning in developing nations, particularly for school teachers and community leaders.

As Australia is seen to be closely aligned with the USA, it might be better to have the project funded by the Australian government, with Australian e-learning expertise, but based in Indonesia, with Indonesian teachers.

It could be in partnership with institutions such as State Islamic University of Sultan Syarif Kasim II, which I visited in 2012.

The $18m the Australian Government is proposing to spend to counter terrorism is not sufficient. I suggest be increased to $100M per year, with the aim to have twenty million on-line students. While that might sound a lot of money, it is much cheaper than supporting a military expeditionary force of hundreds of personnel and the wear and tear on billions of dollars of equipment, for an indeterminate period, fighting terrorists.

As an example the current Operation OKRA has 600 personnel in the Middle East. This consists of an Air Task Group (ATG) with 400 personnel, six F/A-18F fighter aircraft, a E-7A Wedgetail Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft and a KC-30A Tanker Transport, also a Special Operations Task Group (SOTG) with 200 personnel. This level of resources could pay for a lot of education and, in the long term, provide a more effective counter to terrorism.

Half a million warrantless meta data requests

I was interviewed on radio 2SER Sydney this-morning about the release of metadata from Internet Service providers for law enforcement: "Half a million warrantless meta data requests!". For an overview of the issues, see: "Access to and retention of internet 'metadata'" by Jaan Murphy, Australian Parliamentary Library, 18/08/2014.

Engaging Islam Online to Combat Terrorism

Greetings from the ACS Canberra Conference, where Dr Kim Blackmore from the Australian national University is discussing ANU's Engaging India online course. This is the first edX MOOC to be conducted in two languages (both English and Hindi). The course looked at culture, politics, nationalism and economics and was available free online. 

I suggest that the approach used by ANU could be applied to a course "Engaging Islam" to help bring wider understanding in the community and help combat some of the origins of terrorism. As well as being for the Australian community in English, this could be provided in languages in the Indo-Pacific region and those of the Middle East. The view that "The West" does not understand Islam could be directly challenged in this way. Also those who have adopted a violent ideology thinking this was endorsed by a mainstream religion could be shown that there is a peaceful alternative.

Sri Lanka’s post-war troubles

Greetings from the Australian National University in Canberra, where Kishali Pinto-Jayawardena is speaking on "Braving the seas: Sri Lanka’s post-war troubles". Pinto-Jayawardena argues that a climate of impunity existed in Sri Lanka for decades and remains after the end of the Sri Lankan Civil War, with the concept of justice loosing meaning. They argue that poor rural members of the Sinhalese, majority suffer along with other groups from government endorsed military oppression, the example of land takeover ("Is Sri Lanka a military state that devours land?", Kishali Pinto-Jayawarden, November 3, 2013, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian). Pinto-Jayawarden questioned if the Australian government's support for Sri Lanka's CHOGM meeting was in return for cooperation on the return of boat people. While Pinto-Jayawarden presneted no evidence, it should be noted that Australian Senator Lee Rhiannon was recently detained on a visit to Sri Lanka. In April I presented a paper at the 2013 International Conference on Computer Science and Education (ICCSE 2013) in Colombo, Sri Lanka. I visited universities and IT companies in Sri Lanka with links to Australia, the USA and the USA. So I asked Pinto-Jayawardena if such links were beneficial to the situation Sri Lanka, they suggested it was (which was a great relief to me).

Roots of Terrorism in Indonesia

Greetings from the atrium of the Hedley Bull Centre at the Australian National University in Canberra, where Professor Gareth Evans, Chancellor of the Australian National University, Allaster Cox, First Assistant Secretary, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and Solahudin are launching the book The Roots of Terrorism in Indonesia: From Darul Islam to Jema'ah Islamiyah" (by Solahudin, with English translation by Dave McCrae, NewSouth Publishing 2013). The book is already available in electronic format from Amazon.com.

The launch event started 20 minutes late. Also the book was not available at the launch (blamed on the incompetence of Australia Post). Perhaps this is one reason why combating terrorists has been difficult, as they are better at logistics. ;-)

The Lowy Institute is pleased to invite you to the launch of The Roots of Terrorism in Indonesia: from Darul Islam to Jema'ah Islamiyah by a leading expert in Islamic extremism in Indonesia, Solahudin.  Published jointly by the Lowy Institute and New South Publishing, the book is an edited English language edition of Solahudin's best selling NII Sampai JI: Salafy Jihadisme di Indonesia, translated by the Lowy Institute's Dr Dave McRae.  Based on a remarkable array of original sources it shows how the ideas and form of activism that lead to the Bali Bombings in 2002 have a long and complex history, stretching back to the Darul Islam revolt in the 1950s.  The translation and publication of the book was supported by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

Speakers at the launch will include Professor the Hon. Gareth Evans AC QC, Chancellor of the Australian National University, Allaster Cox, First Assistant Secretary, South-East Asia Division, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and the book's author Solahudin. ...